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GGNC up 65% and IMNI up 50% and
how about pill
about the relative strengths of HLTH & PILL. I
don't think there is anything at all wrong with PILL
management. They may well be experienced and competent and
they have built up a nice little company with internal
growth and acquistions. They have a good business plan
as well. One thing is sure though, they have to
learn how to make a profit. Their recent financials are
They just are not in HLTH's league
when it comes to raising money. Whether it is based on
Clark's reputation, luck, or whatever, you have to hand
it to them. They raised a tremendous amount of money
with a lot less going for them (actually nothing) than
PILL could ... even today.
"Interestingly, Merck-Medco is involved in a significant project
with PILL in Texas and Florida. I am also aware that
they have agreed with Healtheon to do a pharmacy
e-commerce project. They are not working with Wygod's
CareInsite, to my knowledge. Medco's working with both PILL
and HLTH is further evidence that they see the
potential of all this for their buisness."
up an interesting point. They don't have to be
acquired by HLTH to make a profit off them. This "business
alliance" will give HLTH coverage and capabilities that
they can promote without pointing out that it is
outsourced. PILL gets more good business volume from HLTH's
promotional efforts. I think they will be doing the same
thing with claims.
If we can't make a quick
profit from a buyout, I guess we'll just have to make it
the old fashion way.
I base my statement on how difficult it will be
for second and third tier companies (give
Quintiles/Envoy and others credit for their networks) to compete
with the largest company. Obviously, a wave of
consolidations is taking place in industry after industry for
very good reasons. It would take up a lot of space and
time to go into this. I trust you generally agree and
see it in this industry as well and there is no need
to go into why it is happening.
Don't get me
wrong. I hope for the best for PILL. It is a small part
of my portfolio and I confess I don't follow it as
well as I should. I appreciate your analysis of
I don't agree with your assessment of IDX though.
It was a good deal for PILL but IDX does NOT
represent anywhere near 20% of the nations' physicians or
30% to 35% of the healthcare e-commerce. Medical
practice software is a very fragmented industry (also in
consolidation) and still has hundreds of software packages that
physicians cling to. IDX is an expensive, high end product
for large practices but it has plenty of competition,
from Medical Manager among many others. IDX benefits
from the consolidation of medical practices and will
do fine but, think of it, not 1 out of every 5
doctors! Somebody put a very imaginative spin on the
I don't know why you bring up anything about a PILL
secondary. The question was why SSB can't get HLTH (if they
ever even talked to them) to raise the money to buy
PILL if PILL wouldn't justifiably want HLTH stock.
HLTH is best at raising cash to buy companies. They
did not exist a couple of years ago while PILL was
already in this business. How did they fly by PILL? By
raising cash to buy comapnies and marketshare ... since
1996. It's also obvious PILL has nowhere near their
resources or ability in this area.
Thanks for you observations......I am not sure
that I would give the PR boys the benefit of the
doubt.....with all the bid talk I expect that having put the
rule over PILL the competition know more about the
company than the shareholders......
As you have the best in depth un-biased knowledge
of PILL yet displayed on this board....have you ever
figured out the market share PILL has in the areas that
it now operates....even the number of areas tests my
mind these days.....I think it includes Nursing homes,
State Prisons, Labs, Financial Data transmition.....a
whole host of services that those new to this Board may
have missed.....especially as when the company issues
upgrades to its progress it never states it cumulative
take on this. First, the big are going to get
bigger - it is happening all around us. PILL will lose
market share and eventually will not be able to compete
once those economies of size kick in. Second, HLTH
should be able to raise whatever additional cash they
need to make a deal, either publically or privately.
That is obviously what HLTH does best and SSB is right
there to help them, if that is what it takes.
is not time for Blue to try to squeeze out the last
possible dollar and risk being left in the dust.
By the way, what's the basis for assuming that SSB
advised PILL not to take a deal with HLTH because of the
HLTH stock? Is there some factual basis or just
someone's construction of what coulda or shoulda happened?
Do you remember any of the prospecting booms....a
hole in the ground was always worth more than a
producing mine......it enabled analysts and investors to
use their imagination as to the value of what was
there......that why HLTH and CARA have such high
ratings....precisely because they have not had to deliver yet....
while PILL as a mature concern is well past its
honeymoon period...THOUGH.....if PILL `s PR company got its
act together perhaps we could have a round up of the
company`s current assets and contracts and the position the
company has in the market place and some idea of its
3-5yr potential.....this is not the time tobe shy and
I totally agree with your comments save one major
point.....PILL is unlikley to have the three years it needs to
grow its earnings to justify $30 -$50....by then the
new players with deep pockets will have robbed PILL
of its customer base by loss leader pricing...I know
it unfair but thats what the likes of HLTH will
do.....SO.....PILL should do a deal with one of the majors in the
same field that has a complimentary position in the
industry.....that way PILL should get some forward value from is
assets and conectivity....if the right party could be
found then not only should PILL shareholders get a
$20-25 it could be leveraged into a bigger
and potentially more profitable venture....that way
you might see your $40 yet......
Many of us here have been saying this for $10 to
$20 and back down again.....but it does not matter a
row of beans if the fish are not bitting.....this has
I think been exacerbated by margin call pressure as
no bid has been forthcoming leaving some of th
stocks players high and dry......BUT take heart there
has been some concerted option buying so who knows
what is around the corner....