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Agnico Eagle Mines Limited Message Board

  • tranthor2004 tranthor2004 Dec 5, 2006 10:50 AM Flag

    Jubak

    You need to read Jubak's article to get the gist. Encapsuled he says that due to foreign holdings of 1 trillion by foreign banks (70 bil by China) the Fed would be forced to raise rates even if it sent the U.S. into a recession. The Fed must defend the dollar at all costs. Loss of faith in $ is growing and according to Jubak the Fed would have no choice but to raise rates. To fail to do so would risk a tailspin that would create more damage than a short term recession.
    My take is a some point the banks will coordinate to destroy the traders and PM when viewed as most effective. Any idea when? I don't know that but I see Iraq heading for CW (not country western) and enumerous flash points to drive the price of gold higher and not to forget the simple demand for more gold in the world,
    Good luck longs.

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    • What is the one thing Bernanke said he would not do above all else. Put the country ino a deflationary cycle.The 10 year bond right now is actually rising with the 3 month hardly moving down at all. At the moment you have a terrible problem with Pension Funds, especailly those conservative funds with large holdings of fixed instruments. Rates have been declining for 14 years with a perfect downward trendline.


      I have said for 4-5 years that I think we will end up like Japan in the early 1990's with 1/2% short term rates. I'm no economist but why couldn't we have 5%-7% long rates with 2% short rates. Have a one-time refinance period,no cash out- with a 5 year term, get rid of all the sub-prime lenders, after the 5 year time frame only 5-10-15-20-25-30 year mortgages. Actually the 30 year is junk when you figure out the cost to a homeowner. We need to get control over credit cards, why should we base credit cards any differently than home mortgages, no more than 10% of unsecured debt.

    • Bernanke is in a box...raise and housing, consumer and the market tank, lower and the dollar is toast....that's why I think he'll do nothing hoping that housing recovers on it's own...in the meantime I agree that gold is a great place to be

 
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