how is he right? look they for the most part asked STX if they buying ocz in the CC the answer stx gave was they don't see a need for a major push into SSD at this juncture without seeing what samsung and densibits comes up with first.
samsung already makes dam good SSD's, densibits makes good controllers. sooo???
i take the same viewpoint as digitalnews
yes he was a bit premature on his numbers "99%" and "annoncement will be made 7/30"
and i bet he will never do that again as any reporter should know if they go that route they are playing a dangrous game, if they are right then they are famed and they are worshiped and can have braggin rights up the yazoo
but if they are wrong they will go down in flames
you do have to have some confidence that if he is still sticking his neck out and saying a deal is going down, then he is either dead on or one really dumb ****.
since he is sticking to his guns......
well i will let you decide as i am not playing that game.
as for me i did lighten up on my shars a bit and sold out at 6.21 from a purchase price of 5.10 but got back in at 5.80 and riding it out on the long side deal or no deal
then there are my calls that i bought for purly play, a wazoo of aug and sept calls, those are the ones that will make the money, most of them are OTM as they are speculative anyway and to me this is what options are for an besides i was able the profits from the first sale of long shares pays for them so now i am on house money.
long lots of shares for the long haul
long lots of calls for the gamble (sept is the longest contract)
i would buy some puts as a hedge but way to expensive,
long term bull, short term neutual......
Negotiations take time. I have led several licensing negotiations with some large pharma companies for $1+ billion dollar deals and know how rigorous it can be. His sources are likely a little bit away from the negotiating table so they don't get 100% correct info.
PSU can i ask you this then:
in your experiance if something is so close that a date was put on it and something was wrong and they are now fine tuning it how long does it take for them to fix it on average?
for example the deal was thought to be done by 7/27 or 7/30 and it did not get done, it is now 8/1 so do things usally happen fast like in days or does it drag on for ever.
I would assume the kinks get worked out very fast while its still a hot issue but i could be wrong.
LEXIS please feel free to chime in if you read this as i know you also deal with this stuff.
exactly, however theo said this is 99% done, finished by friday, exact amounts. this is not your non-binding unsigned contract tweets.
like i say at most seagate looked at ocz, and for whatever reason they have not moved forwards on it and sure don't look like they are going to.
i will also say this since seagate just added a new cfo to the SSD division no way in the world would they even be this far into any contract talks. they would wait till he was onboard before moving to approaching anyone.
Pipster: It is fine to be short the stock, and clearly you are. But really your arguments are as ridiculous as anyone's on the bull side.
I, personally, would put a decent amount of credibiliity in Theo's tweets - especially when he comes out and reasserts his position. The guy has put himself out there. He now firmly is set up to be ridiculed by anyone and everyone in tech land if he is wrong. Why is he doing it? I have no idea. But he did and that adds a certain level of credibility to HIS position, in my mind.
YOUR opinion that Seagate "moved on for whatever reason" is about as valuable or factual as having a watergun in a barnfire. This is YOUR opinion, of course, and since you are short the stock it comes with a short's viewpoint. It is pure fodder on your part that Seagate walked away. You complain about Theo's sources - what are yours to make such a statement?
Your last point about a new CFO in Seagate's SSD division is again fodder. For all you or I know, the CFO was interviewed months in advance (as was the STX/OCZ talks initiated months ago)in preparation for taking the reigns of an STX/OCZ package. Maybe he was put in place so the organization can "hit the ground running." I'm not trying to disparrage you - but yours is total guesswork from the SHORT side. Now if you could hint at some worthy sources as Theo implies he has, YOU could write your own Tech Letter Tweet. But until then don't make unsubstantiated statements about Theo's position.