Your way off Pipster1234. Even considering the extraordinary dark news period we're experiencing a realistic appraisal of OCZ value is between $3.40 and $3.60 / share. I've modeled this extensively assuming the following YoY Revenues 02/2013 - 2017: 329M, 378M, 454M, 590M, 768M and EPS: -1.45 (loss), -.7 (loss), .07, .26, .45. BTW, I believe this is a pessimistic scenario, and aren't you touting a -1.50 number for 02/2013? Using DCF with levered and unlevered 5 yr. flows, 3% constant growth, 15% DR, plus considering a weighted average of multiples including book, EV/EBITDA, Price, and CF that have proven reliable within the industry (as well as the company) I keep returning to the same 3-handle numbers. The multiples weighting based on historic accuracy of the mult. to price. I challenge anyone with knowledge this way to spend the time and do the same. Pipster, You may have decent knowledge of the industry products and players but your assessment is nothing more than a scourges wish. The stock currently trades at a discount due to the "darkness" not the bus. model. Oh... and they will not go BK.
Speculations on valuation are all hopelessly premature. Without a Q (and the real risk of past restatements), it’s pointless to assign a value to OCZ. After all, what could you possibly base the numbers on? Past share price, EPS, revenue – oh please.
With each new week of delay, the odds of a restatement increases – the numbers could all have been a pipe dream… Without the Q, we just won’t know... This puppy could be worth $500MM – or could also be on the verge of BK – your guess is as good as mine.
BTW – assigning a large value to a controller that has yet to see the light of day is wishful thinking – BF3 could be a winner or just an also ran… Without independent reviews and general market acceptance, it’s all vapor ware.
I promised myself I wouldn't hang out on this mes. bd. today and this will be my last post, but, Smallcap, what does your assessment say about the accounting group at OCZ and their auditors, all complete fiction writers? Yes, prudent investors will stay away from a stock with as-of-yet-to-be restated earnings but I'm a little more optimist than you. And if you note I present in a pretty pessimist forecast.
At this point do restatements matter? If they are still bringing in $100M+ quarterly it won't matter if previous quarters are lowered. The stock is already priced for restatements/lower revenue. What matters is if they have any cash left and what their debt levels are.
The fact OCZ can produce a controller that beats out its rivals does matter. They want to ensure there are no problems when it is released. They can't afford past mistakes like they had with previous products.
Their top SSDs (non-BF3) are still top of the market.
OCZ was bad at $5 and was bashed. Was bad at $3 and was bashed. OCZ at $1.30s looks good and been loading up. Why? It is a great spec play at this point and there is more upside than downside imo.
People like piptard1234 don't realize is the size of contracts paid to LSI and Marvell just for controllers. Why pay contracts/licenses when you can buyout OCZ for $300-500M? STX, WDC, INTC are all cash rich. They may make a move to spend that cash with loaming higher taxes going into effect next year. I've averaged down my long position to $1.33 thanks to all the dips last week. I expected OCZ to be $3+ in the next 12-24 months if they don't get bought out.