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OCZ Technology Group AŞ Message Board

  • darkinfo007 darkinfo007 Nov 11, 2012 8:04 AM Flag

    Roadmap to $5+

    Given the current state, what would it take to get to $5+?

    cut cost by about $10M with workforce reduction, is that enough?

    streamlined product mix, less revenue? Will there be less sales and if so will there be enough revenue to sustain cash flow positive position?

    Is there really about $40M on hand from a guessimation perspective? Selling existing inventory and write it down. A/R needs to be aggressive.

    Can they really secure a NAND agreement at the right price with the projected volume of the streamlined product mix?

    BF3 for vertical integration, potential increased margin, does OCZ save enough cost with internal development vs outsourcing? Is BF3 an additional revenue stream?

    Phantom enterprise customer, at least for now it has not materialized. This enterprise stuff is questionable to me. FIO sells through CSCO but the margins must be a fraction of a direct sale since CSCO would want their cut.

    top rated products, is this true? Can the enterprise products provide differentiated value other than low price (technical response pls)?

    I assume the consensus of the 10Q is that it will be crap so it shouldn't be too difficult to improve, right?

    Just looking for legitimate feedback to understand risk and timelines for some due diligence data points (no goofy posts pls). I don't want to hear anything about a buyout, just can't see that right now.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • One wild card is Microsoft. If another company like Intel or FIO end up with the Microsoft business it will ding the stock. They need that deal to materialize.

      • 1 Reply to schrodingers_kitty
      • Not sure that MSFT is an issue. OCZ currently derives almost all it revenue from the replacement of existing PC drives. That market is growing logarithmically as the word gets out about affordable SSD. Short term, that is OCZs only market. Longer term, the PCIe products will begin to penetrate the enterprise. Given FIOs close ties to Linux and Apple, I think it is unlikely that MSFT would adopt their solution under any circumstances. Some vendors will just line up competitively against FIOS, so there will be demand for an Independence solution regardless. If OCZ gets R5 out the door they will start winning business as the default non-fios solution. Once that happens the stock will trade in the $5 to $10 range. I really don't see a much downside at these levels.

    • They estimated the employee cuts at $20 million annually. That's $5 million each quarter to the bottom line. That's a healthy chunk.

      If they even hint at a positive EPS, true profit, then this stock hits $5 easy. If they sustain for multiple quarters and continue to innovate in the SSD community, $10 without a doubt. They have to prove that they can be in a profitable business. Then investor will give them credence.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to mwhummel
      • Don't forget, investors will be buying on the way up also. Sometimes, some of the guys posting here think they are the only ones that stumbled upon this potential windfall of money. There are other investors, just as keen as the rest of you, sitting on piles of cash and looking for a worthy investment. If some of you think OCZ is just going to sit still forever while you contemplate hopping aboard the gravy train, you are only fooling yourselves. At some point soon, OCZ is going to take off like a bat out of hell and the catalysts will be pure speculators,like yourselves, fueled by shorts covering that had lagged too long themselves for their own well being.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • 2 quartors of .06+ positive earnings of profit back to $10