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OCZ Technology Group Inc Message Board

  • johnnywvw54 johnnywvw54 Feb 1, 2013 8:06 AM Flag

    Lets discuss the update

    This is the meat of the PR…. Please discuss…

    **The Company estimates that its quarterly revenue will range between $65 million to $85 million in each quarter for the second and third fiscal quarters of 2013**

    I’ll go with 75M for the average and add 22.5M on top for the write-downs. If this is correct their revenues without any screw ups would be around 97M average for the past 2 quarters.

    ** This range takes into effect the impacts of the reclassification of certain customer costs from operating expenses to revenue, the significant reduction of channel inventory, the timing of revenue recognition, and the levels of reserves for product returns**

    Sounds like they fixed all of RP’s BS in this statement.

    **The Company estimates that inventory charges primarily due to product discontinuance and market prices will be approximately $15 million in the second fiscal quarter and approximately $30 million in the third fiscal quarter**

    So they blew 45M, sucks but we knew this.

    **As of the end of December, certain balance sheet items were estimated to be at the following approximate levels: cash of $9 million, trade receivables of $35 million, with related day sales outstanding of 55, bank debt of $7 million, and trade payables of $30 million**

    So they are worth about 7M plus whatever their inventory is. I say Tangible book value is 60M.

    **The revenue levels of our two unreported quarters were lower than previous revenue results due to significant discounting and the reduction of channel inventory in Q3. Both of these effects are now mostly behind us and moving forward there will be a new revenue baseline which will be lower than previous reported revenues due to the impact of the Company's refined focus towards the mainstream and higher-end consumer SSD products, as well as addressing enterprise and OEM solid state storage solutions. We believe that this strategy will allow us to build a profitable business within Fiscal 2014, which starts at the end of February, and should allow the Company to grow between 20-30% on a year over year basis," stated Ralph Schmitt, CEO of OCZ Technology**

    So right here he is guiding revenues to 110M+ a quarter for quarters in FY2014 and then guiding growth of 25% on average. So he is essentially saying Q1FY2015 will have revenues of 135M+. So in the year 2015 if everything goes according to plan they would make 0.25 a share. Growing at that rate would get you a pe of 20 so a pps of $5 in one year IF they hit those goals without dilution.

    I bet we see dilution… don’t see any other way.

    I see fair value right now between 1.80 and 2.50 and that is if you believe what RP is saying. If they hit their numbers he is proposing then every quarter should see a rise to 5 over the next 12-15 months.

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