I won't short because I refuse to sell first and accept such a massive loss...I've been in this position other times and have almost always walked away with a profit after averaging down. This strategy ALWAYS works with quality companies and NS is that. The key is to find right price (or close).
And with my luck I would sell, short and it would go up big time.
I know it seems counterproductive, but I believe that when NS bottoms I will be able to lower my average cost to a level that will give some hope.
I stand by the fact that NS could be 30 in 6 months or 50. It is a total spin of the wheel at this point. Other market forces are in complete control which make fundamentals useless. I will be buying at $39.40 to lower my average cost. Have I been tempted to buy in the past few weeks? Hell yes. But am I glad I waited, yes. I think buying in the 40's is a mistake. We will see.
Today we are faced with unprecedented economic destruction that unless you are over the age of 80 you have nothing to compare it to.
NS will be destroyed and crushed by the market with everything else in it's path. After today's events, it might be advisable to take a massive bloodbath loss in NS and put the cash under your mattress. Nothing can save NS now.
I am changing my target down to $29.60. The distribution is not sustainable in this market.
These are uncertain times. The only certain thing is that stocks across the board are going to be destroyed. Take your worse case scenario and sleep on it. When you wake up the next day, triple your estimation. That is what you can expect.
NS may be one of the surviors after a global collapse. Nobody knows for certain until the dust settles.