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NuStar Energy L.P. Message Board

  • kerfinator kerfinator Jan 7, 2010 3:51 PM Flag

    $39.99 - Buy Point

    I will wait.

    Is anybody really fooled by this jobless recovery where 30% of homeowners are underwater and rising? Fed ordering printers to print bonds that have no hope of being paid back ever.

    The only reason the market is rising (and yes, NS is part of that market) is because interest rates are zero and nobody is putting their money in savings accounts or CD's because of greed again. The current stock market recovery is just another bubble based on deteriorating fundamentals or I would say no fundamentals at all. Just everybody piling in and jumping on the band wagon because they just can't stand the idea of not making 10% or more. As before, when it crumbles, it will happen quickly.

    Did I get out too early...yes admitedly so.

    $39.99 will be the first buy point with averaging down likely. Time frame unknown...but time is coming.

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    • kerf,
      i usually don't use the words "you're wrong" but you're wrong.

      mlps are a hit because:
      1. most see mlps as a safe refuge while they remain invested. "remain invested" are the operative words. w/ decent distros you are mitagating the downside while you are still in the game. personally, you like to time the market and look where it has gotten you: out of the game, a tax bill, sleepless nights and countless hours watching your computer screen.

      2. when other investment vehicles yield very little, mlps look even better.

      3. even when these "other" investments start to yield more, the risk they carry rises exponentially. not so for mlps.

      all stocks go up and down, including mlps. but by investing in mlps for the LONG haul, you'll come out w/ much better results, less of a tax liability and lots of sleep.

    • Kerf.....I chose to buy more units on the dip today. If you are correct and "Big Bernie" monetizes the debt then the probability of hyperinflation exists. Then the money you are holding will be worthless. Would it not be better to own an asset class today with inflation incorporated returns than holding on to money that could be worth less down the road? Admittedly, investing today is pretty much a crap shoot, but, I had rather own something with today's dollars for fear that tomorrows dollars will be worth far less.

      • 1 Reply to prestoncatfish07
      • I see your point.

        The problem with the market is that whatever disposable investment money people have is all being jammed into the stock market which is causing the 70% increase in 4 months.

        Money is not flowing into the usual investments such as real estate, CD's, Savings Accounts. Real estate is a loser and interest rates on CD's are lucky to be 1%. This is causing an artificial bubble in the market and just as any and all bubbles have suffered the same fate it will burst.

        If I have $50,000 now...I can buy 1000 shares of NS (assuming $50 price) and zero cash. Or I can wait until $40 and have the same amount of shares and 10K in my pocket.

        I strongly believe that the market is going to burst and NS will fall to $40 or below with no sweat. When the fed is forced to raise interest rates this will happen rapidly. There probably is more upside at this point, but I don't really think that it is worth the risk and stress at this level.

        I believe that the buy, hold and collect distributions at this level will not out weigh the wait and buy later strategy.

    • Is NS just going to set on cash (from the 5M stock sale) or will they pull the trigger on an investment? and when? Added though-paying off low interest loans vs, paying 8% dividens is good? for who? Your thoughs, please

60.00+0.65(+1.10%)Jul 1 4:03 PMEDT