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Gold Reserve Inc. Message Board

  • gpost511 gpost511 Apr 7, 2006 10:55 AM Flag

    Won Dumb

    Using your astute analysis, what will KRY losses amount to ( on top of the $167,000,000 lost the past three years)?

    If by some miracle they are able to generate a profit, divided by a quarter BILLION shares, 250,000,000+, what will earnings per share be .0000000000000000001 or .000000000000000000001?

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    • What obvious errors? you are going to have to do better than that.

      Page 17 of the corporate presentation on their website says 82.4 payable net for gold and 84% net payable for copper. What part of net payable do you not understand.

      Besides when they say costs and revenue that would include any trasportation, smelter and refinery charges, as indicated in the feasibility study. You are just taking figures out of the air or from someone who doesn't know anything about mining.


      Please show substantiation for your assumptions because that is all they are.

      3) a whole three dollars, and since you like to quote the future price when its suits you for copper then we should do the same for gold. The 27 months future price is $692 per ounce. So if we ran $692 and $2.22 the numbers would be even better.

      I have no idea what you are referring to but I was talking about the mine being in production and using current prices for net cah flow and then comparing it to other mining companies cash flow multiples. If you just want to be contrary you are doing a pretty poor job.

      If you think the mine is never going to be built you are entitled to your opinion however weak it is.

      And look at the NPV based on those prices. It will be multiples of the current price not a discout.

      That's the tourble with you, you do your poor analysis on the back of an envelope while GRZ employs professionals with the latest technology from SNC Lavalin, SGS Lakefield, Pincock Allen and Holt and others and if you took the time to actually read the stuff on line instead of taking single sentences out of context you might get the whole picture.

      Finally what are the loose ends, and does Crystallex have the same loose ends? Since you say there are too many then list them, and we can discuss then one at a time instead of your vague doom and gloom posts with no substance and a lot of ignorant assumptions.

    • hope we see a PE of 30plus and current commodities 30% to 50% higher

    • Hi Dumbo,

      I've read a number of your recent posts. There is nothing honest, intelligent or coherent in any of them. If you have some new information please provide a link.

    • "If you have some more recent numbers put forth by GRZ, please provide a link."


      http://www.amex.com/?href=http://origin.vcall.com/CustomEvent/conferences/AMEX/0 33006/webcast.htm

      and click on the little speaker beside Gold Reserve 2:30

    • Doug Belanger (president) said at the March 30th amex conference "so at todays price we�d probably be aproaching $300m / yr pre tax cashflow"
      The prices he mentioned were 580 -585 gold, 2.43 copper.

      I see we now have 589 gold 2.67 copper which adds another $17m / yr

      Ignoring dilution that's $7.50/share/year. ($300m/40m)
      And you were saying there's no way the shares can be worth more than $5?

    • As the man said that was at $400 gold and $1.00 copper.

      Let's look at the numbers from the company.

      10.1 million ounces of gold with an 83% recovery equals 8.3 million ounces recovered and sold.

      1.29 billion pounds of copper at 84% recovery and you get 1.08 billion pounds.

      Revenue at $590 gold is $4.9 billion. Revenue from copper at $2.50 copper is $2.7 billion.

      Cost per tonne is $5.26 and they have 446 million tonnes and that cost includes mining(including waste), milling, G&A, smelter and transportation so total operating costs would be $2.4 billion.

      Royalties would be about close to $300 million.

      Initial capital and life of mine capital of $725. Let's say that that number is 20% higher so it is $870 million so total cost of capital, operating costs (net of the $2.7 billion in copper revenues at $2.50) and royalties is

      $4.9 billion minus $870 million capital and life of mine capital mines $2.4 billion in operating costs and mines $300 million in royalties plus the revenue from copper of $2.7 billion and the net cash flow over the life of mine before income tax is about $4 billion dollars. Venezuela get 34% and the company nets about $2.64 Billion (after tax) over the mife of the mine. Divide that by 18 years and the net free cash flow is $147 million per year after tax net of all expenses. So if you assume 80 million shares outstanding then that would be about $1.83 net cash flow per share and with the gold stocks are trading at an average of 30 to 60 times net cash flow take your pick as to the stock price. Even half that at 15 times cash flow would be a stock price of $27 per share.

      If you are going to open your mouth complete the thought and use real numbers. I know you want to ignore the fact that the numbers you quote are $400 gold and $1.00 copper but everyone esle knows that you have an agenda and will not acknowledge your feeble attempt to downplay the potential value of the company.

      What are the KRY figures per share?

      The previous analysis is using current prices. What prices to you use for a long term gold price and a long term copper price.

      Won't you tell us?

    • <So far nobody has shown me any numbers put forth by GRZ that contradict my statement. Now, so you have a link to anything from the company that shows cash flow will be $300 million?>

      Yup:


      http://www.amex.com/?href=http://origin.vcall.com/CustomEvent/conferences/AMEX/0 33006/webcast.htm

    • You didn't mention that this is for a scenario of average $400 per oz gold and $1 coppe. The company has a healthy cash flow even at these metal prices. If you think gold is going to average $400 in the next few years, you need to sell your KRY shares as quickly as possible. I recommend sell now!

    • March 2006 - As presented at the AMEX gold conference...

      http://goldreserveinc.com/documents/March%202006%20Pres.%20AMEX.pdf

    • Ask yourself this: if two lots are in the same location and one lot has 12 million ounces of gold and 1.6 billion pounds of copper and the other has 3 million ounces of gold. Are they worth the same to you?

      I don't think a junior college business class will help you understand.

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