Looks like time to take some profits based on my Dead Board Indicator.... when the number of daily Yahoo messages drops below it's 50 day exponential moving average after a decent uptrend then sell. Reverse for downtrend. Hey, quit laughing. Good investing to all. k_f.
Hard to argue with the housing sentiment you espouse. I have just finished paying off my small CA home, and have considered buying a second home. BUT I am concerned that this is an exact market peak.....and history cautions me otherwise in regards to buying now.
I don't have any problems with anybody taking profits......I sold 20% of my bp position over the last 2 days and would like to lighten a little more.
I do think bp is a good stock to own, but in my situation I have a bunch in my 401k as an employee. I definitely subscribe to the be careful with eggs in one basket theory.
Good luck to you, and all!
Being short you asked?
Usually the best indicator to short a stock is when everyone and their brother think that the stock can only go up. That almost always marks a market top.
Just like the U.S. Fed board thought that productivity and growth would just keep going and going. Totally blindsided those stink'n idiots.
Seems like the Fed board at this very moment has the exact same feeling. Nothing but growth, no chances of a double dip recession, no chances of inflation.
Now that the "cat is out of the bag" on our inventory issues, which I warned this board about 2 weeks ago, now EVERYTHING, is based on the conflict in the Middle East.
Betting on that is just pure greed and nothing else.
I would much rather make a dollar on something else, rather than that. It's a no win situaton for the U.S. economy.
If it wasn't for the Housing Bubble, this whole entire puff ball would have imploded years ago. Now, just when things are ripe enough to cause a panic in the housing area, we have a 30% tariff strapped to Canadian lumber. Now could the timing be any more perfect?
In order to inflate the housing bubble any further than it already is, now there's severe inflation in lumber costs? It's the only thing the will drive the price of homes up.
It's not rocket science. The housing bubble is in it's most criticle stage, the final stage.
Interest rates are on the way up and the fed has no choice but to raise them. So while everyone quickly runs out to lock in and build, it's all but just a matter of time that Jane & John Doe consumer get hung to their over inflated asset.
A year from now, J&J will owe more than it's worth.
I've been watching this MFI indicator. It doesn't seem to be too reflective of anything, though I do notice that AFTER the stock moves this indicator tends to then reflect that move. Recently MFI seems to be moving in a positive direction....even as bp continues to climb. To me it seems that the indicator moves after the stock price, and is therefore a backward looking indicator. The stock price is the ultimate backward indicator, so the MFI doesn't seem to be helping for now. Is this usually the way it goes, or is my data sample just too small?
However, when bp blipped down earlier this week it was on relatively light volume. For me that suggested that the sell off was weak, and just a curve along the path of the upward move. That does seem to be a better indicator of impending direction. BUT in any event non of the indicators is as good as the back ground news driving a stock's performance.
It does seem to me that the oil patch has a tail wind right now with various bullish pressures. I am looking (hoping?) for middle to upper 50's as a minimum.
I am the last to suggest I know anything though! I surely don't. Good luck to all.
I guess I first want to apologize for my remarks.
Opinions are what this board is about. IMO, the more diverse the opinions, the better the board is. There's no one right nor one wrong, opinion. It just is.
I'm not a cheerleader. I peep my head in from time to time, make my remarks and lurk the rest of the time.
There's a great source of knowledge posting on this board, something to be appreciated and respected.
IMHO, outside of the fact there's turmoil in the Middle East, I hope & pray there's no conflict over in Iraq with the U.S. An oil embargo would absolutley crush the economy here in the U.S. And in the long end would most likely damage the oil industry, by teaching America the needed necessity to conserve. I'm telling you now, OPEC has nothing over us here in America. Right now they do, but, IF (big if) Americans were able to stage a boycott of any magnitude even for just one day, Gasoline would plummet in price.
The power is in the people, not in the companies that manufacture for them.
I have seen personally the 20% jump in ULR prices here in SLC. over the last 3 weeks. Just before that occured, SLC had the Olympics. I'm sure you heard of it. Wanna take a guess as to what the profit margins were on gasoline? Now again, remember the world was here, not po folks as us Utahns are, but rich folks. Profit margins were the worst they had been in 5 YEARS. Doesn't say much to me. Have things changed since then, has demand gone thru the roof? How about a big HELL NO! Has the laboratory's phone been ring'n off the hook, has there been call outs in the middle of the night to do finals? No way. SLC (former BP refinery) had a major fire the day of the closing ceremonies, the FCU was down for about 3 weeks, did it cause a big tizzy here in the valley, well that's another no.
Almost all of the airlines are crippled in debt. Do you think airlines or the economy need higher traveling costs right now? Do the math?
I'll leave you and the board with this,...
Roadway Sees Loss as Tonnage Drops
AKRON, Ohio (Reuters) - Trucking group Roadway
Corp. (NasdaqNM:ROAD - news) said on Thursday it expects to post a first-quarter loss, citing declining road freight tonnage in the poor economy.
Including non-operating expenses, principally interest from last quarter's acquisition of Arnold Industries, Roadway estimated a net loss of 8 cents to 12 cents per share for the quarter ending March 23. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial/First Call estimated a profit of 30 cents per share.
In January, daily tonnage levels at Roadway Express, the
corporation's largest operating unit, were at their lowest point since 1987, it said.
``Business volumes were so low, that short of cutting customer service, the company's cost structure did not allow expenses to be shed quickly enough to avoid a loss for that period,'' Roadway said in a statement.
I'm not pi**ing and moaning, I'm just saying you are wrong. Oil stocks have have not peaked, and they have not gone up "like a missile". Crude making a 6 month high means nothing. It could go higher, it could go lower. Look back at history. You cannot have the cuts that have been made in interest rates without having a major stock market ralley. The rates should never have been raised in the first place, but that is beside the point. The market has not yet begun its upswing. Oils and commodities will go with it. If you bought at 44, selling at these prices is not a bad move. You may get back in at 49, but I don't think so, not before another run up. Good luck to you, and stop being so sure of yourself. I'm about to prove you wrong in front of all of these posters, and I will be back to say I told you so, and to point out you have made an incredible ass of yourself. Happy investing.
Sorry for not being here often as many board members wa nt me to do.
My target of $60 by June remains unchanged. I also expect a 3 for 2 split soon, possibly by June as well.
The split will bring us in line with Exxon.
Visit me at http://www.uscnn.com
3 for 2 split? Then that's what I intend to do with my BP-split. After the initial euphoria of a split, stocks tumble. IMHO there is no advantage to this. The NYSE graveyard is full of stocks that split, then tanked. Also IMHO, BP must feel that the stock is near the top if they intend to split. This wold be a good selling opportunity if your $60 price target is accurate.
Split? bp did hike the dividend recently. AND I would love to see a split to boot. But it seems a bit of a reach to me. After all, the stock has split twice in the last several years.
At what stock price levels has bp split in the past? Seems like it was at nearly twice the present stock level.
Would love to hear why you think a split would be considered now?
Does anyone here know of this company, Largo Vista? Apparently they are doing business with the chinese government supplying LPG to residential government complexes. They are also supplying Vietnam. Apparently they have an exclusive agreement to supply all of China. The stock price is a low .11 now, but it seems they are making very profitable strides. Any insight here?
For whatever it's worth I suspect that we'll see some upward movement shortly. Factory orders are picking up, inventories are down. If industry starts to recover here and abroad demand for oil will pick up. The fact that OPEC kept production where it's at (even though cheating is going on) and the price maintained itself, tells me there might be some upside. I will sell a chunk at 53 and if it hits 55 a large chunk. I suspect SJB is shopping and that might send the stock down a little, if indeed a buy is going on. Near term I see 55 in the next week. After that it's a crap shoot. Lots of big refineries coming back on-line and the crude inventory will start to drop. We'll see what happens in the next few weeks. As I stated, if a buy occurs, we could drop a few dollars. Something funny going on over at AHC. Up another 1 something today.
Pipeline, IMHO, and just speculating, there seems to be nearly zero elasticity in the US refining-marketing system, considering the impact of the recent turnarounds on gasoline prices. If gas prices slide back down after everybody's on-line again, then it might make some sense to pick up some US refining capacity thru acquisition. What's your read on the idea? Have a nice week-end. k_f.