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BP p.l.c. Message Board

  • cabbage_farmer cabbage_farmer Aug 25, 2005 12:22 AM Flag

    Next Monday will be time to buy BP

    The storm will have passed the gulf and the weekend "betrer hold em than sell ems" will
    start reopening their storm shuttered windows and calling brokers to ditch oils. Buy on that day (Monday 29 August).
    I just finished a comparative analysis of both the oil service groups (BHI, SLB, RIG and GSF) along with the E&D's : XOM, TOT, BP and OXY.
    My painstaking findings were best laid out in two scenarios. The first being a retreat to $ 50 light sweet and sustained appreciation going forward at current levels.

    The Services sector will undounbtedly do well
    but I had to give the edge to the E&D's because of cosistency of anticipated replenishment rates and increasing demand levels going forward.

    That said BP won overall. Recent trouble with Thunderhorse in the Gulf and the Texas City disaster have given BP bad press but they have a huge share buy back in progress, higher inventory replacement figures than competitors
    and better cash flow with strong divergence of sources of income.

    At this time of year, the oil market should be very soft. It's anything but. Clear evidence scenarion #2 will prrevail. As such BP with a yield at 3% and anticipated lower P/E's going forward wins.

    My buy trigger is $65.85

33.24+1.25(+3.91%)Jun 28 4:00 PMEDT