Puzzling why BP is down with high oil prices and most of the other major integrateds up today. The stock market is just plain strange how it treats stocks. No reason for BP to sell off when other majors are up.
The New York Tmes wrote this today concerning its trouble's with its Russian operations:
Settling the dispute is a priority for BP globally. The company has no other major projects coming on that could take the place of TNK-BP if production dropped over the short term.
Russia is one dark shadow hanging over BP.
The FT had no less than 3 articles on Gazprom today. The title of one was "Gazprom sitting on top of the world, says Miller". The article went on to say that the chief executive of Russia's state controled gas group is clear about the company becoming the worlds biggest and most influential energy company.
Although BP was only mentioned in passing it was clear who intended to have the biggest stick. They view BP and others as only minority participants. (you should take a look at Miller's Photograph).
As long as things are unclear for BP in Russia there will be no buy support for this company.
Refining margins are awful right now; BP has a huge refinery presence in the US.
Overall market is getting killed.
BP is hedged such that further increases in crude prices are not going to be fully realized by BP's earnings for several quarters.
BP is limited in the amount of excess crude oil production capacity that they currently have.
Volatility in Russia.
Volatility in other places that BP is pumping oil out of right now is incredible (Iraq).
Previous earnings disappointments/poor guidance.
Unclear future strategy regarding renewable energy projects, even though this is an entire division of BP.
Threats of windfall profit taxes, although minor as they may be.
Higher rig and exploration costs in the future.
Unknowns regarding BP refinery accidents in the US; currently these suits could go to the US Supreme Court.
Marginal asset replacement history.
There are plenty of positive notes about BP currently, but you haven't asked for them...only the negatives...I'm sitting on the BP sidelines for the time-being. If the divi yields greater than 5%, I'll move back in in small increments.
Lest not forget the quarter ends on 30-June, as does the semi-annual results. Mutual funds and hedge funds pushing down prices to buy on cheap, then show better returns at end of month.
I think it within range for BP to jump to 68.50 or 69 by monday.