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BP plc Message Board

  • watchthedownside watchthedownside Jul 23, 2008 10:25 PM Flag

    BP priced as if oil at $50/barrel

    anyone trying to pick the near term bottom here is a moron.....just buy the stupid stock...at a $70 marginal cost of production for oil and 11x p/e, BP stock is worth $100/share...just wait....integrateds are the only place I would be in oil/gas right now....will be one of the best performing subsectors over the next 12mos. regardless of whether oil is at $70/barrel or $125/barrel.....the only exception is HESS which is fully valued at $95/share assuming $100/barrel oil

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    • write the puts at 60 to add a little bang for your buck
      this is too cheap
      i think the cost structure isn't too bad but their is alot of fear from russia
      contracts don't mean much in russia unless they favor the russians
      russia is going back to the stone age
      just hope it doesn't take bp with it

    • Your numbers might be correct, but you are ignoring the management discount that is currently penalizing this stock. Investors just don't have any confidence that Sutherland, Hayward, Conn, and their cronies will be able to get the company back on track to perform operationally and financially, as well as resolve the issues in Russia in a way that is not a big value loss to BP.

      • 1 Reply to examocobp
      • I agree with the math, but this is a case where the parts are worth more than the whole due to the lack of strong leadership within BP, especially in the downstream. At some point, BP needs to deliver not just promise. It is amazing that the analysts don't ask the hard questions of Tony and his team. Just what is the profitability of Texas City and what products are they actually making today? What is the AM/PM franchise delivering in the US, or are the jobbers just discounting the amount that they pay for the convenience assets to offset the franchise costs? What is the strategy post BP-TNK? Where is the search to replace Sutherland at? Lots of questions, not many answers.

 
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