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BP p.l.c. Message Board

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  • nomorehomes nomorehomes Sep 7, 2008 1:16 PM Flag

    If you want to know what BP is facing

    Dow 10K is not so crazy considering earnings of the Dow can easily go to 65 or 70 dollars. Take that at 15 times earnings and you get about 10,000.

    Then take into account that the rate of technological progress has begun to decline (this affects oil production to the number of employees a company hires), whenever the price of oil doubled over a 12 month period the stock market returns averaged from -27% to +4%, and finally if you are a US investor that our gov't has added 10% to the money supply in the last 15 or so months.
    If you take all that into account, especially the inflation factor of the oil and money supply (whenever the cpi gets up over 4 percent or so), then it is highly likely that companies cannot pass off their costs to consumers as fast as their input costs have gone up and therefore earnings decline. Dow 10,000 is thus achieved with little or no effort even with rates being held down artificially low by the FED - unless investors act irrationally which has been known to happen.

    A PE of 15 equates with the real cost of capital of about 6.5% right now. You may be able to borrow for less than that but only because the US gov't is bailing everyone out by printing more money which will eventually cause more inflation and higher rates. That is what Congress wants so they can pay off our staggering debt with cheaper dollars.

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    • trim it 10% and you get 700
      trim it 17% or so and you get 650
      not 65 to 70
      figures include losses of dow industrial components (some don't include the losses but that is not an accurate representation)
      kind of like the bike rider who turns off their odometer when they stop for a break and then tell you they cruised at 20 mph when it was really only like 18 mph if they included their rest time

 
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