Arrr Me Hearties!! "The Black Swan" is the scourge of the Seven Seas!!! Avast, prepared to be boarded!!
Sorry, for some reason when I hear "Black Swan" it sounds like it should be a name of a pirate ship. Or maybe an Australian wine.
I understand the Black Swan reference, though, referring to unexpected things that surprise everyone when they appear and change world views.
When asked, years ago, what is the biggest problem the world faced, Sen. Moynihan replied:
----"The Islamic Bomb, and, it's coming"----
Israel sent 2 signals this week;
1) Bombed a convoy in Kenya, 500 miles away, with a combination of long range F-18's, and, Predator type drones.
2) Hit an incoming, high altitude missile with a homegrown interceptor.
The Isreali PM warned his public;
---"It's 1938, an Iran is warming up the ovens"---
Within 1 year, the Islamic bomb could be a reality.
With an existential risk, will Israel Black Swan the Persian Haman, and, gush crude to the triple digits?
The IDF let it be known that YF-22's were used in the Kenya operation.
YF-22's are the most advanced LONG RANGE fighter bomber built in the world, and, represents the very latest & best in American air power.
To use this platform operationally, Israel must receive permission from our DOD.
Could the little publicized attack against that Kenyan arms convoy be the warm-up for a pre-emptive American/Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear assets, and, grease the skids to triple digit crude?
It would likely be impossible for the U.S. Military to take out their core development in one night with conventional arms - scattered around the Country and some deeply buried as they are. Despite Israel's pleading with Barama he isn't going to participate in poking a stick into that hornet's nest. And the United Nations is not going to do anything to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weaponry.
I expect it will eventually become a game of chicken with Iran trying to leverage Israel for the Palestinians and putting the House of Saud under their thumb; whereas Israel, if actually struck, would take out Tehran and other strategic targets with their nuclear arsenal. Unless, Iran just can't get it developed in an offensive capacity during the Barama Admin and a pro-Israel Conservative Admin is elected that would collaborate in multiple pre-emptive strikes if need be, thereby essentially rendering Iran impotent.
Maybe sooner than Mid-Summer given the chatter about Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. But how does this happen when they would need U.S. Military refueling "complicity" and Iraq overflight rights??
If crude hits triple digits this summer, two things will happen: The economy will sink because of the cost of fuel and there is not that much elasticity in demand. Second, the Obama administration along with Harry and Nancy leading the Congress, will tax and destroy the ability of US oil companies to invest in development and the price of crude will soar even higher. Harry and Nancy, my gosh, you'd think a nation that produced past congressional leaders like Everett Dirkson, Lyndon Johnson, Tip O'Neal and so many others, could do so much better!!