Here is what I think I understand..Fact 1) BP owns 65%..Anadarko owns 25%.. Mitsui owns 10% , therefore BP liability limited to 65% of clean up... Fact2) hard to estimate cost but most say 3 billion max ..Fact3) Transocecean AKA RIG was responsible for the platform i.e. their equipment, crew and safety practices not BP's..fact 4) market has taken approx 24 billion market cap away from BP (hopefully you can do the math)..5)BP will survive this just like Exxon survived thier spill as have others (this my opinion not a proven fact)..6) everyone has to have oil and uses it daily even the gulf fishermen unless they want to row from now on..anyone wants to dispute these fact with facts have at it
18 hours later and 20 plus replies but very few additional facts lots of opinions...here is my opinion (for what it's worth) a whole lot of posters are either unwilling to share their facts here or they have developed an opinion without having knowledge of the facts..
kentuckyderby, You want to know something strange ? HAL has not really lost anything in market cap yet like CNBC tried to say they did. When this all started on April 20th, HAL was only about $1 higher than Friday's close. On the 26th, HAL actually traded UP to $35 which was 5 days AFTER the fire began. Imagine that !
What's even more ironic is HAL just recently announced they were buying WEL (Boots and Coots) for $3 per share in cash and stock just one week (4-12-10) before this fire began. I'm sure many know what WEL specializes in, right ?...PUTTING OUT OIL WELL FIRES ! Although the deal has to be approved by the shareholders, I'm sure the WEL holders might want to reconsider their vote and say NO WAY ! If HAL has to pay part of this mess, their stock could be cut hard too in my opinion.
Look at HAL's stock price and historic quotes. Was this more Wall Street games supporting HAL before what could be a disasterous quarter for BP,RIG,and HAL ? This whole thing is getting "stickier" by the day.(pun intended) LOL
Wild rumor out of Europe that a N. Korean sub blew up the rig, which was made by a S. Korean steal company. The ultimate motive is to sabotage the proposed Nuclear weapon use treaty since the article claims that a nuclear weapon will be needed to stop the leak. This has to be the ultimate conspiracy theory.
You've missed a BIG component. BP is going to get sued for Loss of income by the entire fishing industry for many years. This is billions of dollars.
And any other industry who will lose revenue from this.
Sorry to say, but this stock is done. This is so much worse than the Valdez. They have NOT even stopped the flow of oil yet.
It's even worse than that. BP's current strategy is to use chemical dispersants to treat the slick. That GUARANTEES that the oil will be MIXED INTO THE WATER FOR DECADES, affecting everything it touches. It's the reason that the Environmental Protection Agency PROHIBITS the use of dispersants when it gives water discharge permits to petroleum facilities. People from Galveston to Key West will be looking for lawyers.
This will make Valdez look like a dog piddling on Sarah Palin's lawn....
24 billion shaved from market cap supports yes this is a big problem for BP no doubt about that...definite "black eye" for offshore drilling can only guess at what changes are made in their procedures going forward
A good portion of the decline IMO is allowing for the coming decades of lawsuits by every agency, business, individual, organization,law firm or cause that sees a dime to be made here. This is going to be like tobacco litigation. The longer the solution takes, the louder the cash register will ring for all the above.
It would be good to see some images/illustrations of the physical configuration of the sunken platform the drill string, casing etc. i'm just finding stock images on the news sites. There is in my opinion very little technical information being released
kentuckyderby, I appreciate an honest and civil opinion and discussion. It is hard to get a legitimate conversation on these boards due to the political dumbchit that usually clusters up the message boards.
The real facts are that NOBODY has a clue as to how much this will cost which includes BP. Therefore, opinions are just that because BP or nobody else knows how much oil has been spilled or when it will be stopped. The cleanup costs are one thing and the lawsuits are another.This could severely damage BP and their reputation. Not only that but projected earnings for now are highly questionable due to several factors. Several businesses may end up filing bankruptcy because of this spill.Due to the weather then it is hard to tell how many areas will suffer damages.The fishing industry alone is over $3 Billion per year and it is now in severe jeopardy this year and we won't know how long it will be before it will recover. A LOT of marine life will be exterminated due to this disaster.
BP will have to reimburse the US for all of their assistance which by their own statements are praising the Coast Guard and now the National Guard will be involved in cleanup efforts.It may not have been so hard on BP if they were not self insured but due to that, they will face much of the burden because it was their well. BP may end up going after HAL if they can prove it was due to shotty workmanship but that will probably be a court battle that can last for years even though BP will have to pay the bills now and as time goes on.
Since stock prices are based on earnings, BP will probably face downgrades and lower estimates.This is not the only well affected because now many oil and natgas wells have been shut down in the gulf and there will be no more drilling until this is fully investigated. So for that reason, I would expect earnings to drop and possibly seeing BP cut the dividend in the near term. Believe me, the shareholders will also be paying since they are actually owners of BP. BP paid a great dividend but you might see that cut very soon as costs mount up. I would think that many will continue selling but if they don't want to sell then I would SEVERELY think about buying put options to protect the potential downside. The media columnist that think they can guess a bottom are only fooling themselves or anybody that may believe them.Remember when they told people to not sell after 9/1/1 when the markets opened ? Yeh, they wanted to get out first and many did. You can bet there are people sitting on their computers and calculators trying to figure out what kind of impact BP,HAL,and RIG are facing. The recent drop in share price could continue for a while because the spill is still spewing oil at an alarming rate. In any case, good luck to you.