Exactly, lots of unknowns. 1) BP should be able to stop the majority of the leak within 2 weeks, they could place another BOP over the well head or just plug it up 2) a lot of the oil is just sheen, a light oil that will evaporate and is easier to clean up 3) need mother nature to come through with a cold front, get the winds out of the NW to move the spill out into the GOM. Which from the current weather map is the case. Winds from the NW by early Monday morning 4) BP and involved parties need to continue to be aggressive with dispersants and controlled burn of the spill 5) once the beaches and marshes get oil on them the clean up costs go up dramatically.
I will continue to wait and watch. BP in the 40s, assuming better news in the next 7 days, some success in stopping the oil leakage, could be a decent value buy. GLTA