I just don't know how you could say that, either way, up or down. You just don't know, so how can you be so determined. I feel that Cramer is an experienced professional would no better to guess. I spoke to a professional portfolio manager today, and he is doing a lot of analysis before making any decision and probably won.
Yes of course I can say that, it has lost 30 billion in MArket cap from 62-48. And this spill is not close to being as bad as the Ixtoc which was also in the gulf. Nature will do the clean up and by chance if the Top hat works, this will run up a quick 5 %. RIG is even a better buy.
I think people are too quick to dismiss how much damage that this leak can do not only to BP but to the entire US economy. This leak has the potential to single handedly increase food prices for the entire US. Not to mention it could vaporize tourism for the entire gulf coast for years. All that is really missing so far are pictures of ducks flopping around in black oil (credit BP's extremely aggressive use of dispersants).
Further, any one of these fixes can explode. Capturing a 5000 barrel a day leak and funneling it up a 5000ft tube to a containment vessel is extremely risky. Relief wells are also risky. In the end the best case scenario may be 3-4 months to shut this thing down and a true ecological disaster. Best case. Worst case would be a relief well explosion and then another 3-4 months to drill ANOTHER relief well. By that time the heavy use of dispersants will guarantee that the entire Gulf is a toxic soup.
I guess what a gambler may hope for is that BP can keep the pollution in the ocean where they have minimal liability. So far that has been working but all it takes is for one wave of liquid oil to make it through to beaches to send BP down another 10%.