You need to ask yourself why he would make such a statement.
You don't get to his level in BP without being diplomatic. He is fully aware that he is in the middle of a PR nightmare and he will no doubt have advisors who would tell him how inflammatory such a statement could seem. Whatever you think of him and the company, they're not stupid. So why make such an optimistic statement that is a massive hostage to fortune?
He has access to accurate unspun information (and far more of it)than any of us and he is surrounded by scientists (no doubt experts in many fields) who are providing objective reasoned projections as to how this could turn out.
If it was going to be as bad as so many here are forecasting he would have chosen very different language - far more cautious and less potentially inflammatory. Just have a think about the choice of words and why he didn't say for example "Yes, the enviromental picture is worrying but we are confident that it won't be as bad as many people fear."
I can only conclude that he has good reason to believe what he has said.
I think it would be prudent to pause and reflect on why he has made, what seems from your perspective to be, such a basic Public Relations blunder. Has he?
Maybe I missed it but i seemed to have read "moderate" not the 'minimal' you (et al) are claiming. Meanwhile you use a rate even you admit you pulled out of your butt. Then you claim ther is no end in sight, when every day the chances of stopping and/or reducing flow increase.
Will the siphon get it all? Nope, but it also isn't maxed or optimized yet. My understanding is the uppper limit on the siphon is little less than 25 mbpd. Let's assume the leak is or becomes 25 mbpd at that point (we'll cover the BOP leak in a minute). Let's assumed when optimized the mix is 80% oil and 20% crude (nat gas takes car of itself at the flare). If true, they will be getting 80% of the oil. That isn't perfect but better than you could do.
As to the leak at/near the BOP. BP has developed at least one means to attempt to stop it (at which point the siphon is no longer needed either.) Is it a long shot? They say so, but neither you or I really know. Are they moving 'slow'? Sure, slower than we want. But they also know that if they screw up, they could make things much worse. They are doing/attempting things never done or likely even considered. But they are getting better with each step to the ultimate end (of the leak but not the event).
Even if the above fail, the relief wells will (at least eventually) work. And I bet they are both 'done' (if both wind up necessary) be done well under the initial 3 month estimate.