BP plc Message Board
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Engineer's honest opinion
From the look of the current state, I would say it looks good from an engineering standpoint. The release valves are open because the pressure of the mile long pipe must be increased incrementally over time for the flow to reach steady statee to the top. The flow is leaking at the top, not from the seam. The key now is to increase forces at the seam to hold it all together before release valves are gradually opened. I say 80-90% capture rate is doable with this system. I bought 4k shares just now and will check back in a week. I am not saying the shares would not go down, but I think solely based on engineering front, this is a lot better looking than previously times. In addition, expect the media to circle buyout rumors next week. . .
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It is leaking from the seam, Look at Enterprise ROV2 video feed, clearly its blowing out at the mating surface The cap's fins are visible in the oil cloud.
- 1 Reply to metrotango88
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I looked at it again. It is very hard to tell how much is coming from the seam. At high velocity and constant changing state and direction, it may appear to be coming from a location from which it is not. What I could deduce is the density of color is lighter at the seam which tells me the mass coming from the seam is less more substantial. What do you think?
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The drill pipe to the surface should already have gas to bleed off -- does anyone know if there is evidence this gas is being burned off at the surface?
If no gas is being burned off, there is some problem with the cap and/or line -- which would be why the cap's vent valves have not been closed yet.
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you are correct. Lots of bad posts with people who know nothing. don't know enough to know they are looking at the ROV moving vice the cap, etc.
Good post.
SM- 1 Reply to sandiegoman99
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You are a dumbass. Watch the video - Enterprise ROV 2. The BOP doesn't move. The cap does, violently at times. This is a total failure - why do you think it's Plan G?
You will only lose more money trying to deny what you can see with your own eyes.
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Here's the real story. They increased the flow 30% by cutting the riser. The spill was already much higher than was being reported. They will cature some flow, leaving a leak rate that is near the originally advertised rate. How's that for progress. BP is a broken stock, a broken company, and a broken future. You have to be nuts to buy this bag of bones. There is blood on their hands, unbounded risks, civil and criminal penalties, mounting costs, and an almost 100% likely hood of a storm in the GOM before the relief well is finished. Why would anyone buy into this stock? Please, give me 3 good reasons and an honest investor opinion.
- 2 Replies to oil_man0319
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Three good reasons to buy GLDD, CLH, MSA.
Demand for their services are going up each day. These 3 companies are going to profit substantially -
oilman has got it right!
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Well I wouldn't want you engineering any of my projects. Obviously your assessment is entirely wrong. The oil isn't spewing out from the relief valves on top of the cap. what you are looking at in the video feed is the top of the BOP and the top hat is completely out of site because the oil is billowing out from the seam, not the relief valves. Who ever came up with the idea of designing a top hat to capture a raging flow from a 20" pipe with what looks like a 5" pipe should fired. It's like trying to place a straw over an out of control fire hydrant. Sure, some oil will go through the straw, but obviously most of it will escape outside of the straw. This method will fail.
- 2 Replies to leachb31
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Your thoughts were identical to mine initially, and I asked myself, why did they "shrink" cross sections so dramatically. I think your anology of a straw is very valid. But after some thought, this has to do with the cold seawater/fuel fluid mix mechanism or the need to minimize that. The fact that the back pressure is very large can be solved by exerting forces at the seam. But like I said, this is much better than previous times. Yes, I agree, I would like to have seen a longer hat than this short hat. . .
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They thought they could heat a smaller volume of water to
prevent freeze up.
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I hope you are kidding about being an engineer, because your post is asinine.
- 2 Replies to silty1234
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I am a flow assurance engineer.
I simulate wells flowing in sub sea pipes like this for my job.
The flow will never reach a true steady state because we are looking at two-phase flow going straight up a vertical riser. The flow may form slugs, which is long liquid segments (say 500 ft long) separated by gas pockets (say 10ft long). This can cause the pressure at the cap location to fluctuate dramatically. Unfortunatley I dont have the software licence I need to simualte this right now, otherwise I would be checking it out.
I honestly dont know what they can be waiting for now?
I would think the valves would be ready for opening? -
non engineers have difficulty understanding this concept.
one that should be easy is gradually increasing pressure on combustible materials.
ever heard of a diesel engine? imagine a mile long 20inch cylinder....
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I stand corrected.
gradually shut, not gradually opened. My fault.
However, the idea stands. Can you imagine the time it will take for expanding gasous and liquid compounds to travel 1 miles at constant changing pressure. I would give it at least 3 days to reach steady state. Be patient, and check back in a week. You will find $. . . that is if the CEO stop talking crazy things of course. Yours truly.- 3 Replies to esuntexas
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Why not just throw a metal ball with holes inside the tubing to stabilize the flow rate. the size and shape can be calculated for effectiveness and efficiency without having the ROV to slowly close and open the valve. Too simple for an MBA mind.
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So, in your "engineer's opinion", it is a good thing that the cap is being tossed around like a rag doll? This is all part of the plan?
Let me guess - it will stabilize when they close the valves, right?
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Guy must be working for BP as an Engineer. They have too much leisure time on their hands. Go fix the leak...
- 1 Reply to jmanueljr01
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Do you have your papers? Just checking. Arizona may be looking for you.
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excellent post...I hope this is the case
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"the media to circle buyout rumors next week. . . " I vote a "yes" if it above my breakeven on this stock which is now at $59 a share. Purchase another 1,000 shares today! Before it was $62 a share for breakeven.
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