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BP plc Message Board

  • christmile christmile Jun 24, 2010 12:33 AM Flag

    Smart money is buying BP

    BP containment improving. Cap catching more oil. Don't let media or bashers misguide you. Smart investors are accumulating BP, and will be rewarded for taking on risk.

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    • so thousands of barrels of oil are still gushing into the gulf daily, just not as many. You have to do better than that. Lets wait till a friday close is not lower than the previous week.

    • bkloucks Jun 24, 2010 4:35 AM Flag

      no one could be that stupid

    • Sure, there's some risk. But there's also a heck of a lot of reward, potentially. And with oil recovery efforts looking better, BP stock is a good calculated risk at this price level.

    • You are missed the train already.
      My PUTS @26 and 22.5 for July, which I sold about a week ago, look very promising.
      The $$$s are with the guys with the big balls.

    • SP 500 Target $57

      Analysis prepared by Christine Tiscareno on June 18, 2010, when the stock traded at $ 31.74.
      ä BP has always accepted responsibility for the
      clean-up costs of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil rig
      disaster, and we believe its strong cash flow
      generation and operations will allow it to fund
      this burden. Having met with President Obama,
      the company announced the suspension of the
      2010 dividend and set aside $20 billion
      (excluding fines and penalties) to cover the
      Deepwater Horizon claims. The fund will be
      created over the next 3.5 years with payments
      of $3 billion in the 2010 third quarter and $2 billion
      in the fourth quarter, plus $1.25 billion per
      quarter thereafter. Resumption (and amount) of
      the 2011 dividend will be considered by BP's directors
      in the fourth quarter.
      ä Oil and gas production increased 4% in 2009,
      with reserve replacement of 129%. BP expects
      production to reach 4.3 million barrels per day
      by 2012, and has guided for 1% to 2% annual
      production growth over the next five years.
      ä First quarter results beat our expectations on
      stronger prices and refining margins and reduced
      administrative expenses. We look for improved
      demand to boost earnings, and we
      project after-tax operating earnings per ADS of
      $6.42 in 2010 and $6.72 in 2011.
      Investment Rationale/Risk
      ä Despite BP's shares being technically undervalued,
      in our view, we believe uncertainty will
      remain until the escaping Gulf of Mexico oil
      flow is capped. Gulf of Mexico related sentiment
      has clearly affected the share price, but
      we believe BP remains financially and operationally
      sound, and well placed to finance and
      facilitate the clean-up. Looking beyond the Gulf
      of Mexico incident, we believe BP will improve
      its operations over the next three years, restructuring
      downstream operations to improve
      ä Risks to our recommendation and target price
      include negative sentiment reflecting the Gulf
      oil spill, the potential for a Gulf hurricane, punitive
      U.S. government resolutions and related
      fines or charges, lack of success in replacing
      reserves through the drillbit, inability to restructure
      the downstream business, operational
      problems, terrorism, and volatility in oil prices.
      ä Our 12-month target price of $57 reflects a DCF-
      based cash flow model (WACC of 15% and a
      beta of 0.94), peer comparisons and industry
      analysis. Our earnings and target price are
      based on an exchange rate of US$1.47/GBP.
      Qualitative Risk Assessment
      Our risk assessment mainly reflects our view of
      the current uncertainty over the costs and
      potential consequences of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico
      rig accident. This is only partially offset by the
      relative inelasticity of oil & gas demand over the
      economic cycle and our view of BP's robust cash
      flow, strong exploration prospects and sound
      corporate governance practices.

    • I am short but I dont think BP will go BK. Share price is probably not going to move much unless there was some disastrous news. There are way too many shorts wanting this to tank. Time to get off the boat. I will buy some calls just in case.

      • 1 Reply to viablecelldensity
      • BP, will be named, "BIG POLLUTER". So far, the stock, has held the recent low of 29. However, everyday, it is dangerously approaching 29. It is getting closer, and closer, to 29. Its only 59 cents above 29. Its cushion or buffer of safety, or security is dwindling. If the stock broaches 29, or trades below 29, Fund managers have stop loss orders to sell, that will go off below 29, that will drop the stock precipitously to the low 20's. Next stop 22-23, if 29 can't hold. My prediction, is that the stock, will trade at about 10-15 dollars, in the next 6 months. I think, this stock, will be cut in half, from the current levels. Many fund managers, will sell their large positions, if it drops below 29, for fear, it will go bankrupt, or to zero. Better to sell at 23-29, then to watch the stock go to zero, and become worthless. Sometimes, its best, to just cut your losses, and eliminate your risks. There are much more stable companies, with stellar reputations, to invest in. Besides, if there is a large correction, in the S&P 500 down to 980 or lower, BP will be the first, to be sold. It will go thru, several support levels. Right Now, The Oil soaked Pelicans, and OIL Fouled GULF beaches, will monopolize the news and provoke the ire of environmentalists, and liberals. THERE will be a Large BOYCOTT of all BP gas stations. BP will be synonymous with BIG POLLUTER. Americans will hate BP, and boycott their gasoline. There will be criminal charges, and BP will be banned from all US drilling operations. BP will become "ANATHEMA" to Americans, and then BP will go Bankrupt

    • you and the other new poster pumping pnx. probably same guy huh.

    • Are they buying it for the big dividend?

    • BP will bounce back...

      The US coast guard is involved and working with BP to solve this problem. Admiral from the coast guard is leading the govt effort.

      Senior experts are working with BP.

      Once the relief wells are in this leak will stop. Hope for the best.

    • In your dreams!!

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