and, yes, I know crude is still flowing out of the top. But we all know it can either be shut off or collected 99.9% by the collection ships now. So, what's it worth? Not pre-blowout $60. So somewhere in between 38-50, MAX.
there are still lots of different possible scenarios:
1) They can "shut-in" the well now, effectively stopping the leak.
2) They can't shut it in with the new cap, but can still collect >90% with containment ships. That's good, but still leaves them vulnerable to hurricanes.
3) The first relief well hits, and the bottom kill is successful.
4) They can't shut-in or bottom kill with only one relief well and they need the second relief well to finish the job. But bad weather forces the containment ships out.
5) Like 4 above, but weather forces them to abandon conatinment.
6) Like 5, but they get a system in place to siphon along sea floor to another reservoir or holding spot while containment ships are forced out due to bad weather.
All of these have various effects on the price.
Best case is that we get #1 in the next couple days, and #3 in the next couple weeks before the next bad weather...then the stock could climb over $45.