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BP p.l.c. Message Board

  • genetics4rfuture genetics4rfuture Jul 15, 2010 2:00 PM Flag

    We Already Know the Casing is shot

    Now when this pressure test fails, the 9 dollars that has been priced into this stock in recent days will disappear in a heatbeat.

    BP already up big on speculation = ripe for huge profits just like last time when Thad "Ret@rd" Allen said the top kill was working. You guys remember that? BP spiked on his comments and then BP dropped over 8 bucks when people realized Allen was full of it.

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    • I think BP is being super-cautious NOW. However, I think they were not very cautious at all before 4/20 and that's how they got into this mess.

      But now that they have a whole team of government lackeys watching their every move and causing at requesting a couple delays...yes, I think they are being cautious.

      The top kill failure "might" indicate an issue with the well casing, but it certainly isn't proof. They were trying to pump mud in with an ill-fitting cap, through a damaged BOP (which appears to have had chunks of drill pipe jammed in it), against the strong flow of oil and gasses.

      That's why they weren't sure a top kill would work in the first place. Again, the failure of the top kill does not offer proof that anything is wrong with the well casing.

      But again, that's my opinion. And that's why I'm long. I think the cap will seal this in the next couple days and the relief well will kill it in 3-4 weeks and the stock will be mid-$40's. <shrug>

    • Yes mr.obvious we heard you were a genuis in school. must be the reason you took 7th grad and 11th grade three times.

    • I certainly don't know the well casing is shot. In fact the only data I have is the press report where they said the seismic data looked very positive and they believe the wellbore is intact.

      You can say that's a coverup, but if so Thad Allen and the rest of the non-BP scientists and engineers are in on it.

      I have zero reason to believe the well casing is a problem. Odds are good that the well integrity test is positive.

    • If the casing is shot. All the more reason to use a riser from the new caping device. Collect the oil and when the pressure goes down in about ten years, the claims will all have been paid, and BP pps will be well above recent highs.

      • 1 Reply to protect_america_first
      • Here's the 24 Billion dollar question.

        So this new cap has the ability to CAP and stop the oil as long as the well can hold the pressure.

        So the question is this, Will BP purposely fail to cap the well and make up continued problems in order to continue to sit on the cap and suck out all the oil or delay the relief well drilling purposely because they DO NOT WANT TO SHUT IN THIS WELL since they now have the ability to suck 60,000 barrels/day and sell it?

        When the relief wells cement the hole, this well is done and while the government wants that, BP doesn't. BP won't be able to get a new permit to drill a new well here at macondo easily. BP will want to suck from this new high volume cap for as long as humanly possible.

        Your thoughts on my analysis?

    • I agree.
      Most here want to believe that the price goes back to its old $60 level.....as if nothing ever happened.

      A lot has happened to destroy the profitability, status, and financials of BP. Not to mention the uncertainty of legal filings.

 
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