Now when this pressure test fails, the 9 dollars that has been priced into this stock in recent days will disappear in a heatbeat.
BP already up big on speculation = ripe for huge profits just like last time when Thad "Ret@rd" Allen said the top kill was working. You guys remember that? BP spiked on his comments and then BP dropped over 8 bucks when people realized Allen was full of it.
I think BP is being super-cautious NOW. However, I think they were not very cautious at all before 4/20 and that's how they got into this mess.
But now that they have a whole team of government lackeys watching their every move and causing at requesting a couple delays...yes, I think they are being cautious.
The top kill failure "might" indicate an issue with the well casing, but it certainly isn't proof. They were trying to pump mud in with an ill-fitting cap, through a damaged BOP (which appears to have had chunks of drill pipe jammed in it), against the strong flow of oil and gasses.
That's why they weren't sure a top kill would work in the first place. Again, the failure of the top kill does not offer proof that anything is wrong with the well casing.
But again, that's my opinion. And that's why I'm long. I think the cap will seal this in the next couple days and the relief well will kill it in 3-4 weeks and the stock will be mid-$40's. <shrug>
The new cap is just to stop the leak for a few more weeks until they intersect the wellbore by one of the relief wells.......once the wellbore is cemented off and sealed, the 2nd relief well will then become the production well and keep the flow coming----for years ! BP won't give up on that giant oil discovery!
I certainly don't know the well casing is shot. In fact the only data I have is the press report where they said the seismic data looked very positive and they believe the wellbore is intact.
You can say that's a coverup, but if so Thad Allen and the rest of the non-BP scientists and engineers are in on it.
I have zero reason to believe the well casing is a problem. Odds are good that the well integrity test is positive.
Yes, certainly the trend of info indicates things will be shut down in the next few days. There's not much rationale behind this going lower except on profit taking.
You have to ask yourself - are you just being stubborn because you are holding short positions (wishful thinking), or do you REALLY think that this stock is headed to zero? You guys that trade on margin really worry me. Don't spend money you don't have - wealth building 101.
If the casing is shot. All the more reason to use a riser from the new caping device. Collect the oil and when the pressure goes down in about ten years, the claims will all have been paid, and BP pps will be well above recent highs.
Here's the 24 Billion dollar question.
So this new cap has the ability to CAP and stop the oil as long as the well can hold the pressure.
So the question is this, Will BP purposely fail to cap the well and make up continued problems in order to continue to sit on the cap and suck out all the oil or delay the relief well drilling purposely because they DO NOT WANT TO SHUT IN THIS WELL since they now have the ability to suck 60,000 barrels/day and sell it?
When the relief wells cement the hole, this well is done and while the government wants that, BP doesn't. BP won't be able to get a new permit to drill a new well here at macondo easily. BP will want to suck from this new high volume cap for as long as humanly possible.
Your thoughts on my analysis?
Most here want to believe that the price goes back to its old $60 level.....as if nothing ever happened.
A lot has happened to destroy the profitability, status, and financials of BP. Not to mention the uncertainty of legal filings.