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BP p.l.c. Message Board

  • goldinvestmentmanagement goldinvestmentmanagement Dec 2, 2010 10:38 PM Flag

    ExxonMobil Takeover

    BP XOM
    Valuation Measures
    Market Cap (intraday) * 129.41 360.44
    Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2011)1: 6.57 11.24
    Price/Sales (ttm): 0.44 1.09
    Price/Book (mrq): 1.42 2.48
    Enterprise Value (Dec 3, 2010) * 152.85 365.72
    Revenue * 288.8 329.81
    Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 0.53 1.11
    Reserves BOE * 18.3 23.3
    Reserves Value @ $88 bbl * 1,610.40 2,050.40
    Enterprise Value/Reserves Value 0.09 0.18

    * Amounts in billions

    ExxonMobil:
    * Fortress balance sheet
    * Massive free cash-flow
    * valuation ratios roughly double BP's and greater than all
    competitors
    * Desperate to replace its declining reserves (current reserves: 23.3 billion oil-equivalent barrels)

    BP:
    * Weakened balance sheet
    * negative free-cashflow (not for long)
    * Lowest valuations ratios amongst competitors
    * Holds massive reserves - 18.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent

    Conclusion: BP is the cheapest super major in the universe by every fundamental metric. If oil prices hold or rise from current levels ($88 bbl) and BP's stock price remains depressed then it will likely be acquired by ExxonMobil for $60 - $70 per share or up to 70% above current levels.

 
BP
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