Sun, Sep 21, 2014, 10:45 AM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

BP p.l.c. Message Board

  • cajuninvestor cajuninvestor May 17, 2012 7:00 PM Flag

    2 very interesting BP points!!!

    This article speaks to how the govt. estimates may be way off (much lower fines possible), and how their arrest of Mix was unjustified (Guy tries to help stop the gusher and gets arrested for obstruction...typical govt. overreach).

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/05/feds_umped_the_gun_in_bp_engineers_arrest.html

    It is very peculiar to have a judge recused on such a case.

    http://www.chron.com/business/article/Judge-recuses-herself-from-ex-BP-engineer-s-case-3565594.php

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Are the govt.s estimates based on what was released, or what was released minus what was captured?

      BEST CASE for BP = aprox. 4.928 mil released - 827k captured - 1.253 mil. MISSING = 2.848 mil SPILLED * $1100 per bar. = $3.133 billion penalty (All of which is already reserved for).

      If you take a RDS.a or TOT multiple of 6.32 * $7.62 eps = $48.22 share price.

      At XOM multiple of 9.89 * $7.62 eps = $75.36 share price.

      WORST CASE for BP = aprox. 4.928 mil released = 4.928 mil SPILLED * $4300 per bar. = $21.19 billion penalty(Of which $3.5 billion is already reserved for, which means $17.69 billion in additional liability or $5.58 per share in additional liability).

      If you take a RDS.a or TOT multiple of 6.32 * $7.62 eps = $48.22 share price - $5.58 per share additional liability = $42.64 share price.

      At XOM multiple of 9.89 * $7.62 eps = $75.36 share price - $5.58 per share additional liability = $69.78 share price.

      Any way you look at it, BP is at least $5.14 (WORST CASE) to $37.86 (BEST CASE) per share undervalued in my opinion.

      • 3 Replies to cajuninvestor
      • Your analysis is very similar to mine. Heads I win, tails you lose!

        The most attractive part of this asymetrical bet is that you get to collect 5% in dividends every year.

        Wish BP could do a massive buyback but they can't until the settlement.

      • *****Are the govt.s estimates based on what was released, or what was released minus what was captured?

        BEST CASE for BP = aprox. 4.928 mil released - 827k captured - 1.253 mil. MISSING = 2.848 mil SPILLED * $1100 per bar. = $3.133 billion penalty (All of which is already reserved for).

        If you take a RDS.a or TOT multiple of 6.32 * $7.62 eps = $48.22 share price.

        At XOM multiple of 9.89 * $7.62 eps = $75.36 share price.

        WORST CASE for BP = aprox. 4.928 mil released = 4.928 mil SPILLED * $4300 per bar. = $21.19 billion penalty(Of which $3.5 billion is already reserved for, which means $17.69 billion in additional liability or $5.58 per share in additional liability).

        If you take a RDS.a or TOT multiple of 6.32 * $7.62 eps = $48.22 share price - $5.58 per share additional liability = $42.64 share price.

        At XOM multiple of 9.89 * $7.62 eps = $75.36 share price - $5.58 per share additional liability = $69.78 share price.

        Any way you look at it, BP is at least $5.14 (WORST CASE) to $37.86 (BEST CASE) per share undervalued in my opinion.

 
BP
46.46+0.04(+0.09%)Sep 19 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.