I expect his to happen as the war against Syria and Iran heats up. But will the Western governments be able to confiscate Russian investments in the West and compensate BP with them? i.e. are their Russian oil investments outside Russia that are vulnerable? Otherwise BP stands to lose billions
The market pretty much has it priced in. It's about 20% of their profits.
I think it's ludicrous. You need actual grounds to seize anything. BP brought back dying russian fields to record production. I doubt they want to jeopardize that. They are also counting on huge investments from ExxonMobil to develop the arctic. That goes away if they start seizing companies.
highly unlikely confiscation would occur. Russia will not take the chance of becoming an international outcast like Argentina. I view the current situation as the heat being on TNK and not on BP. The oligarchs are not in good with Igor Sechin and he is tight with Putin.