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BP plc Message Board

  • vikkitrader vikkitrader Jun 11, 2013 9:50 AM Flag

    Seeking Alpha Validates Short Position on BP

    Today's Seeking Alpha article states, if BP loses it's appeal on July 8, 2013, it is then a good stock to short. The legal analysts agree reversal is unlikely, so why wait until July 8th? Short now. The Street is just beginning to get wise to what I've known for months. There is a hole in the hull that BP can't fix. This company will sink.

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    • masonma@sas.upenn.edu masonma Jun 17, 2013 6:05 PM Flag

      Go ahead. Have fun paying an almost 5% dividend......

    • The "verbage vs verbage" dialogs citing other people's work or opinions, reminds me of the arguments on the Big Bang and Before universe models. You all will never be able to really understand it because of the math, so, all of your arguments use other people's math. Simple: Short or long position does not matter here, no one is going to formulate a stock trade based on regurgitated bs. Oh, if what I just posted is sort of correct, then the arguing about position and the future pointless, unless, you just like to do that king of thing. Go to the DUK message board and look at what a real jerk can do. Now, figure out if you are just a bit like him or not. YAHOO can do nothing to stop his Denial Of Service attack.

    • bijom@verizon.net bijom Jun 11, 2013 11:02 AM Flag

      Given this potential horror story, I think it raises the question of why a number of savvy hedge funds would have bought/added large positions in a company whose prospects look that bleak? I would imagine they have analyzed the risks and seen something this article doesn't.

      • 1 Reply to bijom
      • The smart $ knows the Courts won't allow BP to be badly hurt. Too many big players - British pensions, US security, etc. China is salivating over the assets. The U.S. won't allow this mockery to continue. You will see senators get involved at some point soon. BP's market cap is down $125 billion, and it has $25 billion in cash. The damage is priced in. Long term, great investment.

    • We see that you are still at it with your daily BC!
      Viki, you have #$%$ for Brains! Your doctor advised you to take a Strong Doze of Ex-Lax on a Daily Basis.

      Now Double Up with an Extra Strength Load of Ex_Lax and clear your head. At he rate you are goin`, you won`t know your head from your #$%$ :-)

      DrD

      • 1 Reply to drdiscretion
      • It doesn't take a genius to figure this out, even you might even be able to understand the 5th grade-level math, Dr. Moron. Run the numbers, like Seeking Alpha did, and you see what I mean. Here's their analysis, in quotation marks so you can follow more easily, Dr. Moron:

        “Take that $3.5 billion number and divide by the number of offers of 43,821. It comes out to nearly $80,000 per claim. Now look at item number 4 "Business Economic Loss." Divide that total of $1,924,168,117 by the number of offers of 7,856. It comes out to almost $245,000 average per claim. This presents two huge potential problems for BP. Number one, with 128,179 filed claims still pending that are mostly business economic losses, with the average of $245,000 that comes out to $31 billion. Number two, and it's a much bigger potential problem, is that businesses still have just shy of 11 months to file a claim as the cut off final date isn't until April 22, 2014. According to the settlement administrator, the pace of filings has been picking up in the last 3 months and is expected to surge while the denial rate has only been 16%. The total number of claims could easily triple just based on the 10.5 months left until settlement expiration plus the current acceleration in claims filed. $31 billion times 3 = $93 billion. That's more money than BP's entire net tangible asset base. Seems a bit extreme? Consider the entire states of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama are eligible along with half of Florida and parts of Texas. These regions added together have around a $1 trillion GDP, and the settlement calls for individual payments that get a multiplier factor, not just for one year of loss! The numbers are staggering and could very well bring BP to its knees."

        There is a certain poetic justice to all of this, as BP tries in vain to stop the leak of cash from its coffers like it tried to slow the leak of oil. Dr. Moron, I hope you stay long and end up selling pencils under a bridge ya stinky troll.

 
BP
51.39+0.20(+0.39%)Jul 24 4:00 PMEDT

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