You need BP to lose just about every other issue for that to be a concern to shareholders. First, BP would have to lose the gross negligence issue (not likely), then BP would have to have the maximum amount of oil leakage found (not likely), then the Court doesn't apply as a set-off the restoration and fine $$ BP has already ponied up (not likely), etc etc etc.
In short, it's possible, but highly unlikely, the settlement payouts will have any material effect on future earnings, dividend payments or share price.
tmoflp: I have no idea or comment about total magnitudes, but in light of your post, please explain (1) what bearing the quantity of released oil (the Phase 2 trial issue) could possibly have on past or future settlement payouts to claimants from the class of plaintiffs that settled with BP under their approved deal that's being administered by Patrick Juneau, and (2) what's the basis of your assumption that "restoration" payments made by BP and fines paid by BP (to government entities, obviously) might be "set-off" against recovery claims made by claimants under that class settlement? As to (1) I had not thought there was any relationship between the settlement payments and the number of barrels that were released in the incident, and as to (2) I had not understood that the court would (or could) apply such a set-off.