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Penn National Gaming Inc. Message Board

  • dundarra dundarra Dec 26, 2004 11:21 AM Flag

    2008 earnings

    Here's my projection for 2008 earnings:

    2.46 (Yahoo's average estimate for Penn, 2005)

    +.81, Argosy merger (somewhere between Finster's .75 estimate Merrill Lynch's .91 estimate, as posted by someone on this board)

    +.40, Illinois tax rollback (my own estimate)

    +.73 (Maine and Pa, ramped up, Merrill Lynch estimate as posted on this board)

    +.20 (4 NJ OTBs, my own estimate)

    +.92 (a modest 20% earnings growth over 3 years [total, not yearly] from property growth and debt reduction)

    = 5.52 in 2008

    Give us a 20X multiple because of excellent diversification, and Penn stock price should be anout 110 this time, 3 years from now,

    And all of this is already scheduled to happen, we just need for nothing to go off track.

    Md may get slots sometime over the next 3 years, which would hurt CT somewhat, but CT may get table games, which would more than offset it. In fact, I think WV table games is the more likely.

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    • These 2008 earnings should put them at $110 in 2007 based on forward P/E. In addition to growth from existing properties, look for PENN to add even more properties during this time frame that are not factored into the consensus 5 year EPS growth estimates.

    • I bought this stock at 34 based on Penn getting slots. I saw what slots did for Delta Downs & Delaware. Your projections didn't seem to take into the type of growth that slots may bring to Penn. What do you think?

    • beg to differ - earlier than you think.

      Plus AGY had past 4 quarters of 57 / by penn's 40 shares = 1.39 = next year ( but this alone will be higher) plus a shit load more cash to cancel debt and expenses and cut the back admin office expense of 7%

      Also you forgot penn intends to achieve 15 % growth in current casinos - yes yearly - they said it and will do it.

      we are on track for way over 6 bucks a share and well before 2008!

      the stock is acting like a spilt on the annual meeting date. But will not happen before the AGY vote .I think with this upward action and agy insider buys that they have enough votes and gave the right shareholders a board seat and good income for a positive vote.!

      Action just might be some window dressing before the end of year by some more big boys. They need to pay the piper to pull the stock from penn holder's hands

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