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Penn National Gaming Inc. Message Board

  • Steevo70 Steevo70 Feb 15, 2005 4:35 PM Flag

    Any intelligent thoughts...

    on the recent loss of momentum in the stock following earnings? I followed this stock for too long before investing. Made an entry recently on the pullback, but I had expected more signs of strength.

    PS - Religious nuts, pumpers and bashers, please just put me on ignore. I'm looking for responses from some of the intelligent people who post here. Thanks in advance!

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    • JMHO - made a few bucks with the announcement
      that mim was going to buy meca at a low take over price.. then even made more by selling meca and buying mim when frank decided he did not want the potential legal action. mim went up way over 30%. To me the money is with MIM when you talk meca - and the money with mim is with Frank. Just did not want you to hype this board in the wrong direction with meca- it can be taken out at any price and at any time. Bottom line is MIM owns the majority of Meca and will bleed it anytime it wants! A Soprano thing!! But frank can't live forever and take it with him!

      ALL IMHO

    • PENN is currently number 3 in gaming industries but I think it can overcome the leaders. Indian gaming in California is now twice the gaming in Nevada, which has and will drain money from MGAM-MIRAGE. PENN is not nearly as exposed to competition from Indian gaming.

    • The history of Penn is that it makes its gains in sharp, short bursts, often for no immediate reason. So relax a bit, have a little patience, enjoy the coming Spring, and let it happen.

      Actually, there are 3 state legislative sessions going on right now that are important to Penn. WV (we want table games), Illinois (we want the tax rollback to occur on July 1 as scheduled), and MD (we want no slots). I'd take 2 out of 3, with Illinois being the most important.

      Regarding MD, it seems Peter Angelos has just backed out of his deal to buy Rosecroft Raceway, apparently because slots in MD is not looking good. Good for Penn.,0,5432930.story

      Furlong, any take on how Illinois is leaning? Or is it totally up in the air?

      • 1 Reply to dundarra
      • <<Furlong, any take on how Illinois is leaning? Or is it totally up in the air?>>

        The Governor's budget address today (long on spending ideas and short on revenue sources) left some speculating that gaming expansion could be part of the mix this year.

        The Senate President (also a Democrat) and the Governor's only loyal supporter last year during budget negotiations is continuing to push a propgram of expanded gaming gaming positions at existing facilities, slots at the tracks, and additional gaming facility locations, including one in Chicago, that would collectively raise $1 Billion, just to start.

        The Senate lost its "Godfather of Gaming in Illinois" due to retirement this year, and their is a huge leadership vacuum in that chamber now for someone to champion this issue; paying attention to the details, through the Senate even in the Democratic (majority) caucus. When the Senate re-organized for the current legislative session after the recent election, they did not re-constitute the Gaming-Revenue Committee.

        The rest of the legislature; and especially the House is much more cautious after the Governor has hung them out to dry on gaming proposals several times in the last 2 years. The Speaker has indiciated that he will not advance or call any gaming legislation until such time as the Governor will publicly claim exactly what he will support, and how he would support it.

        One of the biggest wild card obstacles to getting anything done is the Mayor Daley in Chicago, who's legislative agenda is to have a land based casino, with more than twice the gaming positions currently at the other licensed locations, and have the facility government owned. With the daily disclosure of ongoing corruption in city government in Chicago, this gives the suburban Republicans all the cover they need to kill anything involving government ownership in Chicago.

        In the end; even if something were to start to advance, it would probably become so bloated again that it would sink of its own weight. Unless the Governor steps forward and embraces the issue and provides leadership and expends political capital to get something pushed through, I don't see anything happening this session; especially since he will be filing for re-election later this year.

        I am more concerned at this point that they will actually roll back the gaming tax increase according to schedule in July. I think at best at this point, with a projected $2B deficit and the Governor starting to gear up for another campaign it may be 50/50 at best that this actually takes place.

    • Dear Steev-o,
      Posters here have a Racing Form folded in the back pocket, and a plaid pork pie on their balding domes. And, do recall the site is named yahoo. With that said, sage observations from intelligent posters abound, just like what you'd hear five minutes before a horse race, must be suspectly regarded.

      This stock has made a superior run, and is taking a breather before the daily double, or split. This may be followed by enthuisiasm, or caution, for a couple of months.

      Peter Carlino (we could call him JockOne) has not changed. Soft hands of a banker and keen eyes of a long runner will carry this one round the track a couple of more times before pasture. Psst - hot tip....

    • I am not sure how intelligent these are; that's for others to judge, but here are some thoughts just the same.

      Depending on your time horizon it is likely you will not be disappointed here. When the deal closes with AGY, (expected before year end) there should be a great deal more clarity as to the consolidated entity. PENN will be able to wring out some significant economies and efficiencies, and AGY; at the present time are well situated and have for the most part been well run on a local basis.

      This acquisition will be accretive immediately (possibly more so than has already been projected) and while it increases their debt it also gives them significantly greater scale and improved diversification for both revenue and EBITDA, so that they will not be as vulnerable as they have been in the past to a significant negative impact from a change in the legislative/regulatory environment from a single state/location. (Illinois is still pretty high risk however). The free cash flow will allow them to pay down the debt much sooner than many anticipate I believe, and this will be a significant net plus to this deal.

      There are some significant (reasonably) near term positive develoments on the horizon. In PA, PENN is very well situated to develop a strong regional property, far away from too much direct competition, and this will serve them well.

      Maine; while not the most favorable legislative terms; are not the worst either. If they can get this location built out quickly they will operate it profitably and be good corporate citizen, thus opening the doors for the more densely populated southern Maine at some point in the next few (3-5) years.

      WV could allow them to expand to include table games; which while not as profitable, could allow the location to expand into a more full fledged resort type property, and provide a different and alternative experience to both PA and MD; if they ever get their act together and pass a slots bill there.

      PENN is an acquirer; and has proven adept at integrating properties pretty seamlessly. There are; and will continue to be some very good acquisition candidates out there for PENN in the reasonably near future, so additional growth may not be just internal.

      While there are many risks ahead, assuming nothing goes completely crazy, you could still profit quite well in the next 2-3 years under the right circumstances.

      • 1 Reply to furlong426_99
      • usually when a stock splits ther when issued price will be slightly higher that the regular price..IE $60 per share 30.50 for when issued stock) There usually is a slight arbritrage play here.

        I don't particularly like stock splits..getting two 5's for a 10. Odds are that right after it splits it will drift down..The news is out..Regards Al

    • I think the consensus is that there is a two thirds probability for an upward price trend, a one third probability for a pullback. Uncertainty and fear drives a lot of the market now. Investing is a gamble.

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