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Penn National Gaming Inc. Message Board

  • dundarra dundarra Sep 12, 2000 10:43 AM Flag


    I expect FY2000 earnings to look something like
    .44 (2 holidays;WVA Breeders Crown;July, August
    .30 (not as big a dropoff as you might think,
    October, November are very nice months around here, people
    still like to gamble)

    1.38 full year with the
    year about 3/4 over. Of course, this does not factor
    in Mississippi, who knows about

    So, this means the stock price is currently 10X this
    years earnings, with nice prospects for growth at least
    the next couple of years or so.

    This is
    ridiculous. I figure these are the possible reasons why the
    stock is so low:

    1) No one knows about the
    stock. (Volume is pathetically low, as of 10:30 this
    morning, no trades at all)
    2) No one cares about this
    stock. (Its small in an unglamourous industry.)
    Mississippi is seen as a major negative.

    In the end,
    stock prices always follow earnings. Its the only thing
    that really matters. So, if earnings continue to rise,
    we'll all be fine. Forget the stock price, keep your
    eye on earnings.

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    • the reason this stock is so low, imo:

      high debt to equity ratio.
      2. changing focus of
      business (from horseracing to casinos)
      3. management
      that is unproven at best, and incompetent at worst
      (for proof, look at all the delays, failed expansions,
      "one-time" charges that recur, etc...)

      look for a
      sell-off of non-casino racing properties in 1st qtr 2001.

      after another slots initiative failure, or one that
      doesn't get off the ground in the 4th qtr 2000, penn and
      pocono are owned by someone else.

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