Normally before pirates attack a merchant ship, their sources confirm the amount of hidden gold within the cargo holds. Not the case when the pirate captain, Longon Silver, commandeered the MERCHANT SS PEP BOYS. The order was given " Bring back the sacks of gold men, then scuttle her to the deep six ". Confused after finding no treasure or anything of real value, the buccaneers figured the only collateral onboard that was worth a ransom was an old prominent ship broker named Goldman Sachs. Maybe that's what Longon was shouting to them while under distress. After realizing the ship was empty of fortune, Longon asked the broker if he could sell the vessel in order to reward his mates with some form of bounty. Unfortunately the broker knew the ship was old with rotten wood, loose planking and yes the rumor of plague aboard. Its captain had already been forced to walk the plank. The broker, because of his honorable reputation, suggested without a buyer, the pirate captain had only two choices: sail her into drydock for repairs which will require additional investment or dismantle her in a scrap yard and salvage what you can. Right now Longon Silver's only hope is for the winds of a takeover rumor to be strong enough to fill her sails so that his mates can feel a sense of movement. But if the winds die, many of the band may jump ship upon the first sight of land or worst he may have to re-title his movie: Mutiny on the Bounty. Sail! Sail! Sail!
LIFE, The solution is simple yet it would take pages to explain. I recommend you first read Hedge Hogging by Barton Biggs so you can get a flavor of the kind of sailors who are currently at the helm. That will explain the obvious compass error. Secondly, the true course of action lies in the pages of the books, An Army Of Davids and Good To Great. I could make it easy for the Greenwich Ct. boys, but they really need to read and study more while the so called analysts really need to go back to basic homework instead of worrying about who's buying drinks at Harry's. I was an institutional trader back in the day when positioning a trade for a hedge fund account was considered ......in bad taste. It was a time when Mary Ann Keller ruled as the queen of all automotive analysts; mainly because she really did her homework and besides, she was so young and beautiful which didn't hurt. It was a time when Nick just started enhancing his major Advance so he enter the horse race against AutoZone. PEP was convinced it was safe because of its unique business model so it did nothing. NAPA left the back door open when it spawned its own competition - Carquest. I worked and studied this industry for more than two decades; from beneath the oil pans to the interpeting of SEC disclosures. I can reman a head but I will never knurl a guide. I do understand this business but fear what's coming. Its the Street I know first hand that scares me the most because too often, it will expect to much from ......... a knurl. Riggy
I wass, years ago, a PBY store manager. Left job when my wife passed away. When , at one time I was considering returning but most if not all of the contacts I had in the company were gone. It seemed the new people were more content with new failures than old successes. I really don't know how they can fix it but Jake & Elwood put the old band back together & it worked for them.
You've done a good job of outlining some of the challenges PBY faces. You sound like someone who has been (or still is) there.
I am curious to know what you believe PBY should be doing to correct the situation.
Thanks in advance.
Ok---you say the stabil @ 23 future is not likely but we have a coin toss as to if the survivalist or the doom & gloom side win out. If that is the case it is not a great place to hold shares but depending on your luck might be a great place to be "involved". I am not sure I fit into this as I am too old for great long term aspirations but some younger person could wind up at the top of the heap.If you are wrong---and I don't see you being far off the mark often----this becomes a typical high risk investment with great potential for a big fairly quick gain. Very interesting. Might be a good place to put a little "willing to gamble it " money.-----Six months will tell
Mid,to bank on the survivor factor using historical data is a risky way to invest. Twenty years ago, Pep didn't have to compete against 4000 store (healthy) competitors. Customers didn't have much choice. The store and service bay concept made some sense as long as the store stocked what the bays needed,and the bays employed skilled enough people to install the array of components. The surrounding commercial parts business was added gravy. Today, Pep suffers from the same illness that affected some of the surviving greats; Xerox,Kodak and the one that it mostly resembles; Radio Shack. The illness is the firms inability to correctly change due to change itself. Beef up store sales- sell scooters? A Bay needs an nonstocked starter- buy it from a competitor out of petty cash? Head gasket replacements getting screwed up in the bays- go back to tire and oil changes? Commercial delivery costs getting expense- compile orders and make fewer runs? May be better supportive inventory; may be paying for a higher skilled personnel in the bays; may be more responsive delivery were the changes needed to reverse decreasing sales in this highly competitive marketplace. These corrective changes were viewed as more costly then so the execs elected to pursue the no-brainer solution - cut expenses! But too many years of cutting expenses leaves us with a company out of shape to fight. The new greed breed of institutional investors are not going to make the necessary investments in Pep to bring about these changes because they are too costly today in terms of acceptable rate of returns. Hence; the commerical business will never flourish again.(Why would an independent garage buy a part from Pep knowing he is competing for the same service business?). The service business will never flourish again.( Why would a master ASE leave an airconditioned dealership, training support, and having only to worry about servicing two to three brands ?)The store will never flourish again because it lost its indentity as a hard parts provider. A real estate play? In this market....... and the fact that somebody just might raise concerns of old disposal practices and other possible enviromental issues. As far as insiders buying recent shares; they can't afford not to at these levels if they are still planing to flip it @ $19.00. If one has hundreds of millions of investors dollars in a "turn around deal" and you prohibit them from getting out, the last thing you want to be doing is explaining to them why the stock is @ $9.00 a share. This will not be the first time a fund doubled up in an attempt to save a bad investment before it has to announce- Sorry Guys, adverse market conditions, we are going into 11. Pep has struggled through a long market change evolution without much success, which is not as easy to correct. Losing marketshare due to a sudden technological revolution is easy to detect and gauge . The Wall ST Activists, in their quest for the almighty alpha, didn't see this coming because it was already there! There is no quick fix gadget in this case to put Pep back in the arena. What do I think? Captain to the engine room - prepare to dive and rig for dep charges. Riggy
I see by one of your other posts that you miss me.
Quit looking in the rear view mirror it will save you a lot of money....you need to rethunk your thinking.
BTW thunking is high gear for you while thinking is normal for the rest of us.
UR gud Buddy
Exxon will buy at 8.
And that 8 will be at a premium to the market (I would see about 6 as the low for buyout time).
It's obviously above that now -- but way too high for a firm that is making none to very little earnings.
The leaders (so called) of the last 5 full years have only run this firm into the ground. Can anyone here dispute that observation?
A little deja vu for ys. A couple of years ago I said that "bleek" means less to a miraculous survivor. PBY has survived times of business and stock slumps that would have killed off most anyone else. They seem to be always undercapitolized with a regular turnover of everyone from investment firms to store level employees but despite all this negative stuff they have not ceased to exist not have they been swallowed up by a competitor ( or EXXON despite Marthas prediction). Right now the stock is down and looking like someone like me might consider buying back in soon. It may drop further but a twenty or more year look at the overall history tells me that one way or the other the company will survive and the stock will ( to what degree none of us know for sure) recover and very possibly recover to mid-twenties or higher in the not so distant future. Sentiment: Buy soon ^^^^^^^^ what do ya think Riggy ?