18 cent gain on reduced volume today. I see signs of a short term topping off. PBY couldn't pass the $19.00 level. Without a surge in the overall market, PBY could start drifting lower, later next week.
Well, PBY closed at $15.25 on the day before the last earnings release. Today PBY closed at $18.97. I can't complain about a nearly $12,000 move in less than 3 weeks. I've taken 50% of my position off the table, leaving me with 1500 shares.
PBY closed at $19.81 today after trading up to $19.93. I sold another 25% of my original position, leaving me with 25%. In my original message, I predicted that PBY would trade in the 18's & 19's. Although PBY traded over $20 last week in after-hours trading, I'm doubtful that it will do so during regular hours. I read a post today where someone claimed that there is no reason for this stock not to continue climbing. Apparently they are unfamiliar with P.E.'s. The estimated earnings, ending Jan 2008, is 13 cents. Divide $19.81 by .13 and see for yourself how high the P.E. will be. The estimated earnings for the year ending Jan 2009 is 42 cents. Traditionaly, the P.E. for retailers is between 20 and 30. New retailers, who are rapidly expanding, are able to sustain higher P.E.'s. This does not apply to PBY. Will PBY be bought out? Certainly not until next year after the poison pill expires. Even then, who would want to? AutoZone & Kragen are most certainly out of the picture. Ford & GM have troubles of their own. Sears is working on regaining market share after teaming with Kmart. I wouldn't hold my breath people. Rumors of a pending buyout have persisted for over 25 YEARS!!! I've heard them all. This stock is prime for a correction. I don't believe it will go below $17. Most certainly, the 15's are a thing of the past. This stock is a longterm buy. It just happens to of gotten a little out of hand (over-bought).
For years I have been following this stock and posting on this board. The crux of the matter would be that it's very exciting that they turned a profit in the quarter that they have never made money in any serious way. This information obviously has been going around the institutions and prompting the buying in such a shakey market.
Yes that is the mechanics of the market going from oversold to overbought. That is just short term thinking. Trying to time each swing with say the many tools like the Bollinger Band is very difficult on a daily and weekly basis. Look for change of direction, management and earnings and PBY seems to have that for longer term.