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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

  • shorthighcoverlower shorthighcoverlower Oct 27, 2008 8:30 AM Flag

    PBY article on Seeking alpha

    Bullish article on SA this Am

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Anyone recommending this stock in a company that hasn’t turned a profit in years should be viewed with much skepticism. Furthermore, the numbers used in the article do not reflect the current market as they where pre-crisis data.
      Look at:
      http://seekingalpha.com/article/95487-pep-boys-staggering-potential-for-improvement

      And see that in the liquation scenario, the real estate is valued at 1 billion and the merchandise at 280 million. If the real estate has declined thirty percent and the merchandise is only worth 30% (instead of 50%) the net effect is to reduce the value of this company to less than two dollars per share (in same scenario).

      The value of this company using current data and trends is less than indicated and if past downturns are any indication, some shakeout will occur, resulting in fewer players in this arena. Betting that this will be one of the survivors is very risky. It might be better to buy lottery tickets at this point.

      Other useful pieces of data to look at:

      During second quarter, CoStar tracked 350 closed sale transactions of retail property for a total sales volume of $2.62 billion. In comparison to first quarter 2008, 17.8% fewer transactions closed and sales volume was down about 35.2%.

      All told, 776 retail property sales closed during the first half of 2008 for a total sales volume of $6.67 billion. In comparison to the first half of 2007, 40.6% fewer transactions closed and sales volume was down about 48.9%.

      The average retail building sold for $154.30 per square foot during second quarter, down 16.7% from average price paid for retail property during the first quarter.
      See
      http://www.costar.com/News/Article.aspx?id=9C3D9ACDFD82384636CFB7ED3D22617C

      And

      Category Sep Aug Jul Jun May
      Retail Sales -1.2% -0.4 -0.6 0.1 0.8
      Excluding Autos -0.6% -0.9 0.1 0.7 1.2
      Durable goods
      Building Materials -0.6% -2.0 0.5 -0.6 2.5
      Autos/parts -3.8% 1.7 -4.2 -2.7 -0.9

      See
      http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/retail.htm

 
PBY
9.42-0.17(-1.77%)Dec 24 2:48 PMEST

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