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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

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  • daninfw04 daninfw04 May 25, 2009 2:16 PM Flag

    2010 Looking Much Better

    As I have said before.....PBY's has the weakest management team in the retail and service autoparts business. Only when they "morph" into a true caterpillar and deliver results close or comparable to their competitors will they get any respect vis a vis stok price appreciation with industry and sector PE multiples. Their hidden real estate values is the only thing that propped them up in the past. It will be at least 1-2 years before they can unlock that value again. In 16 days we will have our answer. As I have illustrated before, no one really has a clue what to expect on 6-10-09. If O'Dell has become the magnificent caterpillar he claims then we will have just south or north of 47 cents EPS on 6-1-09 before taxes. That's his numbers not mine.....I just took his random ramblings and did the math. The other catalyst will be if and when the BOD's replaces the COB who continues to liqidate his hedge fund positions in PBY. Dillard's is where he was tryig to get control last year and they ran him off and he liquidated his positions in DDS. DDS has since quadrupled since Barrington bailed out. Mitaratonda (sp?) was elected COB when his Barrington Fund had almost 3 times more stock than it does now and when it was the #1 shareholder. It is now the #3 shareholder. Almost all if not all of the curent BOD's except Pirate were on PBY's BOD's BEFORE Barrington so they have no allegiance to him. The BOD's need to go out and find a new COB that knows this industry....not someone just good at sale-leasebacks that aren't working right now. Anyone listening? Call Dillards......DaninFW

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    • I suspect that if earnings fall even a penny shy of 47 cents, the stock will tank.

      • 1 Reply to bayshorerob
      • I don't think so. There are five analysts that are predicting from 4 cents to 11 cents range with an average of 7 cents. Let's say PBY comes in at 10 cents. All those that follow the four analysts probably average 6 cents but the one predicting 11 cents actually brought the average up frm 6 to 7 cents. Those that follow that one analysts might not be happy but the other four would. To be safe, PBY needs to come in at 8-10 cents. However, I expect well north of 15 cents. I don't believe O'Dell. What every single analysts missed when doing their projections was the almost $20 million or 40 cents pre-tax that PBY wrote off in the 4th quarter that will not re-occur this year for pension funding. The thing you can never predict about PBY is that they always have surprises......usually bad. I wouldn't be surprised to see one time start up costs expensed for their new and exciting one store spoke program<G>. However, if O'Dell was smart he dumped eveything in 4th qurter last year so he would be a hero this year. That's what I'm banking on more than anything....not outstanding performance.....just smoke and mirrors. Last year was not as bad as presented. I look for PBY to move up into double digits in 2009 and in 2010 we should see sale-leasebacks again that could take us above $20 in 2010.....I will add one more time......I believe they will have their first sales increase in 2nd quarter in at least 3-4 years. DaninFW