If PBY happened to come in with $476 million in sales ( as analysts are forecasting) representing a 2.3% rise from last year's sales of $466 million and increase their gross profit margin is bolstered 100 basis points from 23.0% to 24%, they would deliver earnings of about 5 cents ( that's assumming interest expense of $7 million, SG&A costs of 23.0% and a 30% income tax rate) That is a pretty tall order to say the least, but I don't see how the analysts are coming up with a loss of 4 cents with their revenue prediction. if PBY happened to experience a 3% sales loss and put up sales figures of about $452 million ( as Danin has said could happen), PBY would experience a loss of about 13 cents per share! so there it is... a eps range of -.13 to 5 cents! we shall see what happens...mark krieger
If you look back 2 months or so, the 5 cents was my exact projection....when I thought sales would be up about 1.0-1.5%......keep in mind they have new outlets or stores, at least 24 plus that will contribute sales but they also have expenses. They might have flat to up half percent TOTAL sales but same store sales will be down 1.5-2.5% IMVHO. I still think they will beat the 4 cent loss by a penny or so....but the real story is sales. Even Autozone barely had an increase last quarter....up 1% as I remember and if you think PBY is in same league as AZO......AZO and ORLY both at or near 52 week highs and AAP just 5% or so below 52 week high. MDS has been ratcheting up with their approval for large holders to buy more. Sector is solid.....and historically this is when PBY can't keep up. I think think we will see $9 before $11.......today is first day of spring and we are expecting snow in Fort Worth this evening.....DaninFW
AZO had a 1% sales gain, but they had to compare it to a difficult comp---making it that much harder to do--In PBY's case, their comps will be easier to beat because they never delivered very good results in the first place. my conclusion it is much easier to look better when you have a poor quarter as your baseline.