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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

  • shorthighcoverlower shorthighcoverlower Jan 25, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    daninfw04: we need your help

    inquiring minds want to know...what's the sweet spot for buying PBY? It seems like every time it dips, it roars back with the help of Gabelli buying...what's your take? Do you think they finally will beat expectations when they report their 4th quarter? Personally , I'd love to see the stock to go back down to $9, so I could really load up the truck and hit a grand slam, when it ultimately goes back to $15

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    • Shorthigh---I am 99% cash right now if that tells you anything. Have been for about 2-3 weeks now before latest downturn. I think we will easily drop a few more hundred points in the DOW this next week and could do it just tomorrow. That alone will put pressure on PBY IMVHO. I think you have it figured out. I have posted on a couple of other boards when asked stocks to buy PBY below $11.50 and sell above $12.30 for a good trade. Week before last we hit $11.30 and $11.28 two different days and just as you said when Gabelli announced he had bought several hundred thousand more shares, the stock popped. That's what makes this a great trading stock at present. Gabelli is also noted for selling very quickly as well. If you look at current quarter Q4 expect they are looking for sales increase of just 7 tenths percent and then 3.2% in Q1 and 3.8% FY 2015. FY14 they expect just 0.9%.......they lowered EPS expect from 7 to just 5 cents last 30-60 days. The poin is they expected 3.5%+/- this year and lowered it to 0.9% and just 0.7% this quarter but expect it to turn around on a dime again next quarter. The point to be concerned about is that they are opening new stores and acquiring stores and just barely having a sales increase. Their core business is dropping. The business model is broke and they have the worst management leadership in the sector. A dramatic turnaround is never going to happen under O'Dell. I have said this for years. Real estate is worth $8-10 a share which is only thing that keeps this stock up. In a down market that won't even save it. If we get a big correction and a disappointing Q4 report this stock could easily be $9-10. I no longer would consider this a trading stock until it bottoms. continued DaninFW

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 1 Reply to daninfw04
      • . I would add that with this unusual weather that PBY will suffer big time in sales. I don't know if we can get confirmation from employees but I strongly believe many locations have been shut down or unable to be reached for several days which also should effect sales dramatically. I wouldn't be surprised if PBY actually hits or slightly beats EPS expect but they are also notorious for cleaning up and taking one time hits in their Q4's. They could even beat the 0.7% total sales increase because who knows what they opened or acquired. But, the same store sales is the key. That IMVHO will show big decline again. Gabelli can not prop this up forever. A major catalyst will drop this below $10 very quickly. DaninFW

        Sentiment: Strong Sell