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Allied Irish Banks plc Message Board

  • zerosum88 zerosum88 Dec 18, 2009 11:34 AM Flag

    Please give me some intelligent thoughts

    I bought some AIB, but I can take both positive or negative comments on AIB, just please be intelligent. Do not give me "this baby is going to the moon" or " AIB is POS, will go to zero", without any reasoning.

    1. What is the chance for AIB to go to zero? Any chance AIB to file BK or taken out by the Irish government 100%?

    2. What is the upside for AIB? (I know AIB has been sold off hard for two months now).

    Good or bad, bring it on, but please no flaming or stupid comments.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies

      As soon as they work out some solid figures as to what NAMA will discount and they cut
      a damn check instead of talking and talking about it...people will buy back in.

      As soon as sturdy people start to buy back in.
      Then, the scardy sheep will flock in for their peice.

      And THEN the bugger will be overpriced before we can say "Thank you JESUS!!!"

      MEANWHILE - God help us. For the news wont be here for a bit for the numbers are many
      ...and the counters are careful.

    • The best advice I will give you is if you want exposure to the Irish banks do it with IRE, not AIB.

      Much safer with at least as much upside as AIB with less risk of a complete collapse.

      As for the opinions on the fundamentals on the Irish banks. There are no reliable numbers to base any valuation on any of the Irish banks currently. Anything being bandied about is a wild ass guess.

      Every specific number that you may have read has been changed downward over the past year on the Irish banks. Question is, have they adjusted the figures low enough or will there be another revision, sending the Irish banks farther into the cesspool of the Irish Stock Exchange.

      I've traded both IRE and AIB with great success. I rarely have held either overnight. Just too many gap down days in the charts for me to take that kind of risk.

    • glazen Dec 18, 2009 3:16 PM Flag

      I've been following this stock almost hourly for a year, bought a sold countless times, rarely hold overnight. Lately, the pattern has been very predictable. All the damage happens in the morning, and then around 2-4, it meets halfway between low and high. It's an easy 10-20 cent pop. I was going to buy strong at 3.35, but missed it by 2 cents. Glad i did! Anything under 3, I feel, will get a 50 cent pop at some early point, just because it will seem like a bargain. As for the long term, I haven't a clue.

      • 1 Reply to glazen
      • Look at AIB's net income the past 10 years, look at the dividend they paid during that time, and then look at their balance sheet shareholder equity. Then tell me this is not a stock you want to hold long term.

        The only risk is nationalization, and there is 0% chance of that. The most you will see, according to the Irish central bank (federal reserve), is a 50% stake, which can be repaid (see TARP with American banks).

        When the finances stabilize, after NAMA, and AIB pays a dividend again, perhaps as early as next year, you'll be thankful you bought in the 3's, or 4's, or 5's.

    • I dont think AIB will go to zero. However, the goverment will have to continue to plug capital "holes" until whatever is left on the balance sheet emerges as true good loans.

      NAMA is only removing, in my opinion and guestimate 80% of the real problem loans. There will continue to be nonaccrual, work outs and write offs - the impact on operating profits (which to this point have been fairly respectable given the state of the Bank) remains to be seen.

      This is a long long term buy next year under $2 in my opinion. Basically buying a long term option, if thats your game.

    • Yes, this is year-end selling for investors to get a write-off on 2009 taxes. You will see a rebound in early January, and maybe a significant jump.

    • AIB going 0 is 0% possibility. BK? 0%
      Year end sell off, that's what's going on. Look at BCS, RBS, NBG, etc.. all going back down to April or May high..

      It's a Dejavu.. going back to 52 weeks low, wiping out entire 6months of good gain. Dilution will come but at what price? that's what we are waiting for. Bottom can be anywhere either 2.50 or 2 or 1.50... or even lower.
      Some Dumba$$ are saying there's no fundmental and it will go to 0... no way.. I 'm only trying to catch the bottom.. But I don't hold overnight..

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