I'd say there's 30% chance you'll see $1.50 in 2 to 3 years time. This assumes the gov will wind up with only 90% of the equity. There's a 1% chance you'll wind up with $3. This is wildly optimistic and assumes that Santander does a u-turn on MTB, AIB finds a buyer for the UK assets and the gov discovers that the assets going into NAMA from AIB are actually higher quality than they had estimated (a truckful of misplaced documents are located which include deeds to property backing many of AIB's loans) causing them a reduce the capital requirement to 8.4B. This new optimism greatly improves the take-up of new shares by private individuals.