Hey I own rather a large share of AIB common stocks that I brought at $ 3.10 and I am very disgusted with what is happening with company. With AIB nationalized on Sept 30, will I loose everything that I invested? What is my chance of getting my money back? Serious reply only...
I gave away money on AIB as well. Wishfull thinking will not get your money back though, it is gone. Cut your loses now and re enter position after dilution is completed. Shares price probably will be much lower.
It's important to note that you the invetor are still in there somewhere. It's also important to note that the Government doesn't want to hold the Bank for longer than it needs.
The Bank will be put back out there when it's right for the National interest and right for the Bank. AIB won't be Nationalized forever.
Notice how the American Government are now drip feeding shares of Citigroup back out to the market. Irish Banks will get the same treatment eventually. Somewhere down the line; the Government will want payback.
I'd say there's 30% chance you'll see $1.50 in 2 to 3 years time. This assumes the gov will wind up with only 90% of the equity. There's a 1% chance you'll wind up with $3. This is wildly optimistic and assumes that Santander does a u-turn on MTB, AIB finds a buyer for the UK assets and the gov discovers that the assets going into NAMA from AIB are actually higher quality than they had estimated (a truckful of misplaced documents are located which include deeds to property backing many of AIB's loans) causing them a reduce the capital requirement to 8.4B. This new optimism greatly improves the take-up of new shares by private individuals.