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Allied Irish Banks plc Message Board

  • ghart3509 ghart3509 Dec 22, 2010 8:17 AM Flag

    Befuddled but willing to learn

    I really am sincere in this question.

    Why with all the other choices that are currently available for a speculative buy would anyone want this bank? One reliable opportunity comes to my mind but certainly there is more. We are approaching a period in time where a well known successful trade is approaching. That would be the “January Effect” where beaten down equities from 2010 are being dumped for tax reasons and typically attract institutional money after the first of the year resulting in a rally. Before you think AIB is a January Effect stock, it’s not. True candidates for the rally by institutional money will be above $5 to begin with. Mutual funds are prohibited from buying any stock under $5. Hedge funds can buy at any price however. The greater pool of cash is held by mutual funds, not hedge funds at the end of the year.

    Most successful January Effect companies are making money but out of favor, AIB is not and will not make any profit for years to come. There are many other characteristics of January Effect candidates but you get my drift.

    So just satisfy my curiosity and tell me what I am missing about this bank that the current fans of AIB feel will cause this stock to rally after the New Year is ushered in.

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