I just posted this message on the IDEV board... but feel it's as relevant here so... here goes! <indicate qualifiers>
I have here <on the IDEV M/B>, on a couple of occasions, expressed that my gut told me that a deal was already struck with Allergan regarding the purchase of IDEV at approximately $12.00 per share, contingent on Nebido approval.... It was only a gut feeling on my part... maybe biased by wishful thinking... but primarily founded in the fact that Cooper <IDEV's CEO> had announced his retirement post Nebido approval.
Furthermore... Kit kat has expressed that she had/has "concrete" evidence that an offer had indeed been made.
If that is the case... and they were willing to pay $12.00 per share 6 months ago... why would they not now offer $6.00 and contingencies adding up to another $4.00 for a total maximum spend of $10.00.
The $20 million breach of contract penalty which amounts to a mere 25 cents a share is certainly not an impediment!!!
<Endo has offered $4.50 a share + coupons adding up to an additional $3.00 - there is a breach of contract clause with a $20 million penalty payment>
Also... assuming there was a deal between AGN and IDEV which fell through... then we know that Allergan has already looked up IDEV's ass and knows IDEV intuitively.
They would not need time to do any further research to assess IDEV's true worth... they can have a meeting of the minds and within 1 day's time make an informed re-assessment and announce a counter offer.
If feathers were ruffled due to the Nebido/FDA fiasco... and hard feelings exist between the heads of state... this would be a "shit or get off the pot" notice to Allergan.
When Allergan first made the offer for Sanctura... I couldn't understand why a company that's primarily about "tits and lips" would want a piss pill... but they expressed they wanted to develop a urology unit... and they certainly have put their money towards that end.
They recently struck a deal for a phase 3 bladder cancer drug laying out $42 million up front on a $370 million total package + sizeable royalties... for only one urology product.
Additionally there is tremendous synergy between AGN and IDEV... It's a perfect fit.
So... if AGN wants a urology unit... and it certainly seems they are serious about it... then buying IDEV is the quick-and-easy way to do it.