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Allergan plc Message Board

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  • everfoxy everfoxy Oct 20, 2010 1:16 PM Flag

    Botox Approval May Add $1 Billion in Revenue

    Do you like to reply to your own posts? The amount of additional revenue depends on two things, IMHO. One is the discount that third party payers (insurance companies, Medicare, Medicaid) negotiate, which is likely to reduce the revenue. The other is how many patients materialize. I've heard the criteria to consider it as treatment is having migraines at least 15 days a month. I have no idea the size of the potential patient population and the likely number of patients from that number. If you have those figures, please share them. Until those statistics are available, I see AGN's price as a great place to take profits. So guess what, I'm no longer long AGN and I don't intend to buy shares here. The good move was to own AGN before it jumped into the 70's. Maybe I'm wrong, but 72+ is too high a price point to buy AGN. Yes it could go higher, but after the recent move up the risk-reward has changed considerably.

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