agree with your thoughts on warner and
j&J...don't see the value with ciba...agn did have a stronger
position in the oph otc market a few years ago...ciba,old
cooper vision, had the second position...could be a
potential ftc problem...the contact lens solution buisness
on a world wide basis is less than exciting...market
grouth over the past few years has been pretty flat due
to the switching of wearers of contacts from yearly
disposability to monthly or two weeks...the place to be now is
in contact lenses and not care products...ciba has a
poor number four market position world wide...alcon
b&l and agn are the leaders...ciba still sells
products that are tired and old...hydrogen peroxide...they
really bring little to the table for agn.i think you
have a good thought with your derm senario...agn has
really never grown this biz,nor does it appear to have
the committment to put much into growing it...at
least not like j&j and galderma,old alcon division now
part of nestle.
There's always that missing piece in Japan.....
hmm...... Allergan could also use their derm business in a
trade with J&J to strengthen their ophthalmic
franchise. A Ciba Vision marriage could also be interesting.
It would create one hell of a consumer oriented CLCP
company. And, as I recall reading, Mr. Pyott's past
experience is based in the consumer market. The consumer
market also presents an opportunity for Allergan to
drive top line independent despite their short term new
Rx product gap. A Botox synergy move is an
interesting angle. One option that comes to mind is Warner
Lambert. If the Allergan Warner Lambert retinoid
collaboration shows short term promise WLA could look at
Allergan as a merger candidate. They could justify the
move partly through increased margin on their diabetes
product by buying out the royalty they would otherwise
owe Allergan. They could subsequently sell or spin
out the surgical business. Allergan's Botox business
would fit nicely with WLA's Parke Davis neurology
franchise and Allergan's CLCP and OTC tears business could
be incorporated into WLA's Consumer
Just food for thought. One can dream can't they?
Besides, wilder things have happened?
How about the
market today. I still can't figure out Allergan. The
market collapses and Allergan's price holds reasonably
well. The market bounces back and Allergan declines. Go
Anyone out there bottom fishing yet? Recommendations?
good thought...with the current multiple on the
stock,i would't do it...but with a stock at 30 times 98
earnings...thats a good play...don't forget that this company is
not cash poor either...if the j&j contact lens
company continues to flounder,it could be a good
target....or some other lens company...how about derm
companies...the other oph stuff out there looks risky to me...and
i would'nt get into another specality segment
yet...either build derm or get rid of it...i am not sure what
you could add to botox...just don't know that pharm
segment...what do you think?
Let me propose another potential strategy for
everyone to ponder. Over the last month there has been a
reoccuring theme to the posts on this bulletin board,
namely, where will Allergan's growth come from without a
consistent flow of new products? Many of you seem to think
that the new CEO is positioning the company through
his agressive cost/infrastructure cutting as an
attractive takeover target. Let me propose an alternative
scenario for your consideration.
agree that the new CEO's has taken an agreesive cost
cutting approach geared at optimizing short term stock
price and valuation. A stronger stock means greater
buying power. This fact is even more important when you
consider that Allergan's stock price seems to hold up well
even in the face of the recent market decline.
Assuming current market conditions continuefor some time
(I hope not too long for all our sakes!) and
Allergan's stock price benefits following formal
announcement of their restructuring/layoffs/early retirement,
Allergan would be in an excellent position to move into an
acquition mode using the strength of their stock. Potenital
targets is the question. Allergan would need to identify
companies with complimentary product lines and/or companies
that provide opportunity for strategic geographic
expansion. Given the state of global economies and the
strength of the dollar, no better time to go shopping than
the present. My only concern as an Allergan
shareholder is the following: historically, only the
shareholders of the acquired company profit, while the
shareholders of the acquiring company tend to suffer for 12-18
Response? Any thoughts on potential
i understand that this new product from merck
will begin to take serious market share from every
competitor in the glaucoma market...what impact on
alphagan?...this is a combination of timoptic and their topical
cai...i also understand that starr will be introducing
their implantable contact lens targeting the prespopic
market...head to head against the array lens...any thoughts?
Good post, as usual, finanly. You said most, if
not all, of it!
Could AGN be too small to be
big and too big to be small?
Also, are you
stating the sales force(s) are forced to use tired,
wornout promotional materials? If so, why? Why are heads
of Marketing and Sales not screaming about
In my opinion, some people in the distant past
failed to realize AGN needed higher revenue products to
off-set normal declines in the existing/aging product
portfolios. Afterall, it takes a significant new product
pipeline to have NETgrowth in a billion buck
Enough said. Deuce
J&J rumors have been around for years. I do not
think the CEO wants to make acquisitions, but notice
how he is streamlining
down the company with a
25% reduction in manpower. Could he be
AGN a tempting company for merger and
Since AGN is no longer on the cutting edge in new
products, and the failure of Tazorac to be a $150 Million
AGN can be folded into J&J. OTC products
would blend with
J&J and the IOL's can be
My question is what has happend to all of the R&D
for the past 10 years with little to show for it. Is
possibility that there is no future as the
future products in
the pipeline will not generate the
Revenues that are needed.
R&D should be held
accountable for the debacle for the lack
of new products.
Sales cannot keep selling the same old products
the same graphics. Notice the ads for Allergan
products in the Sunday supplements. Cost containment and
reduction in force can only last for 18 months as you need
new products. No mention
in the WSJ explains it
Regarding your post #127, my broker told when the
street learned you're buying, the contrarians decided it
was time to sell!!!!!!!!!! Only kidding, of course. I
couldn't find any new news about AGN on the wires.
Good thoughts about J&J and AGN. Truth of the
matter is I've been out of the ophthalmic marketplace
too long to make any intelligent comments. My
thoughts about Novartis/AGN were only top of the mind as I
read the "WSJ" article.
Frankly, I just called
the paramedics to come over and stop the bleeding I'm
experiencing from the rest of my portfolio!!!!!
makes bandages don't they???
Stay in touch.
agn held up well yesterday when the market went
to hell...but today in a neutral day it is getting
beat up...anyone know why...i understand biz is
good...i bought more on the last down tick,and thought it
would stay in the 50 range even with the correction