Botox I believe is one of Allergans drivers. They
have monopolized the mkt for over 15 years. Now,
competition has rendered their ugly ears and have their own
Botox coming to mkt in late 1999 or 2000. I believe
botox accounts for 125 million dollars in revenues for
Allergan. Does anyone have any imput on this and any
speculation to how this engaging competition will effect mkt
share. And is the competitors Botox what is its
strengths and weaknesses?
As you know our favorite sectors are Biotech and
telecom right now. Tuesday was a horrible day BGEN, AMGN,
and IMNX managed pretty good gains. With some
strength in the market them and VISX should go very well.
Especially watch BGEN to go for more. We like VGIN and ONXX
longer term here.
market decided to have a rebound rally, and it felt good
for a change. The question is will it hold today? We
don't think today will carry to much to the upside
simply because we may see volumes fall off. So be
careful today as we could get "whip sawed" during the
day. One of the biggest headlines today involves a
company that is often featured on our NewsLetter...Level
Three Communications (LVLT) has aligned with
Broadcast.com (who is being bought by Yahoo) to provide full
motion video. IBM split last night so take a look at
them and watch for any post split pop. (Yesterday they
gained about 14) NXLK has received a buy rating. CC has
been named a "focus one " stock today. Rocky Mountain
Internet (RMII) has announced they are partnering with
MicroSoft and Intel to provide complete e-commerce packages
to medium sized business. Yesterday the rumors
swirled again that Chase (CMB) may be acquiring Merril
(MER) which gave MER a huge day. Take a look and see if
any of that excitement wears off today. Pacific
Sunwear (PSUN) who just announced a 3 for 2 split on
Tuesday says they are going to launch an online store in
June. ABTL says they are selling one million worth of
cars on line every HOUR! The 1st Quarter GDP number
came out basically in line, at 4.1% That was a non
event for the long bond, and it brought our stock
futures up from negative 4 to negative 2.
has received a strong buy rating and a 71 dollar
COST has posted 46 cents versus 38 cents
getting all of Cable and Wireless's USA dialup internet
Time Warner and SYBS are in a marketing deal to "cross
Keep an eye on PVN because this gets
interesting. PVN was a favorite financial of ours and they got
hammered over earnings statements and a class action
lawsuit. Today they came out saying 99 and 2000
projections are correct and it is trading up pretty big on
LSI has been upgraded to a buy and a 50 dollar target
CIV has been given a buy rating and this one is
interesting. Evidently they have been fairly quiet about their
telecom value and now analysts think its pretty
FLR has been upgraded this morning
MTIC, CPWR have
been initiated with a buy rating
Volumes could be
low ahead of the holiday weekend, so be careful
IREG gets a buy
WEBT gets a buy
PILT is started
as a strong buy
NEON gets a strong buy
gets a strong buy rating..
IMCL gets a strong
DRMD gets FDA approval this morning.
We suggested NSOL, CNET, and CMGI on 3/8/99
(+40), (+40), and (+47 1/2) respectively. Not to mention
EPAY on 3/15/99(+21 57/64).
For more info
and some possible plays for the rest of the week
http://22.214.171.124/NP/NP5.htm Free two-week trial newsletter and full access to
SAN FRANCISCO, CA (OTCBB: BGIX )
http://www.TheHealthChannel.com opens with a splash as BIOLOGIX producers set a
new standard for Internet healthcare portals.
Following a successful pilot test throughout the latter
half of 1998, http://www.TheHealthChannel.com has
returned to the worldwide web with a dramatic array of new
product and service offerings.
Sporting a new and
improved look, as well as flexing the muscle of strategic
partnerships with several of the industry�s leading new media
players, http://www.TheHealthChannel.com has now
established a foothold on its claim to be the Internet�s most
comprehensive, entertaining and innovative healthcare supersite.
This portal currently indexes over 2.8 million other
Internet health and health-related sites, has direct links
with an excess of 1700 sites, provides detailed
coverage of nearly 700 medical conditions, and is itself
nearly 250,000 web pages in size, establishing
thehealthchannel.com as the largest and most comprehensive amongst all
healthcare information, product and service competitors on
the web today.
http://www.TheHealthChannel.com states that: � We are in the midst of a
revolution in the world of healthcare. This is all about
choice, convenience and confidence. We hope to help put
the power over health and well-being back into the
hands of individual consumers and their trusted
Not only does thehealthchannel.com
empower the visitor to find out nearly everything
imaginable about healthcare, but the site is also fun to
use. Consumer tests have already shown particular
fascination with the �Program Guide�, as a
single-point-of-access to health-related radio and television
personalities, �On-Call� featuring online physicians and
caregivers, and �Virtucare� , the channel�s doorway to the
emerging world of health and virtual reality.
Not too long ago, you posted a
message about cash flow/share driving up AGN's stock.
Appears you were right on the money!
In case you
or other investors in ANY equity missed it, read the
article in today's "Wall Street Journal" (page C2) about
analysts now favoring cash flow vs. reported earings in
Best regard, the Deuce
completely forgot about the botox sales
force....but i still have my reservations about the longterm
creditability of elan,and lots of companies make claims about
their pipeline....only time will tell...thanks for the
Yes, I think I understand your earlier comments
now, Dr. Pharma. R&D portfolio management cannot be
done in a vacuum. Especially if R&D is the engine
driving the going concern. I think most people would
agree that botox has huge market potential due mostly
to its off label possibilities. Cs for dry eye and
other indications mentioned by oldeyeguy is an unknown,
but novel, therefore big potential. Alphagan has been
a winner, but yet another glaucoma drug to lower
IOP. Ophs seem to try whatever new glaucoma drug is
introduced, so alphagan leads in scrips may be
Parenthetically, can AGN people in the know safely communicate
what is going on with Botox and pain, or any other
product or therapeutic area for that matter. Possible
grounds for disciplinary action same as anywhere else.
Focus on what is now being so eloquently communicated
by the CEO through analyts and the stock
Speaking of stock price, the rise to the high 90s was
attributed to 2 analysts upgrading their ratings. But can
anyone explain the fall to the low 90s now? Is it in
part due to the FDA warning letter about PR
manufacturing site? Or is it AGNs track record of performing
opposite of the Dow?? Regardless, I'm hoping it's a blip
on the radar screen and the steep upward slope that
started 12 months ago will continue.
Thursday March 25, 3:32 pm Eastern
FOCUS-Pharmacia & Upjohn sees strong 1999 growth
details and updated stock price in 2nd para, new forecast
and background in 3rd, 4th, 10th paras)
NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - Global pharmaceuticals
group Pharmacia & Upjohn (NYSE:PNU - news) on Thursday
forecast growth of at least 10 percent in first-quarter
sales and full-year earnings, following a restructuring
completed at the end of last year.
executives issued the forecast at a meeting with analysts
and investors here. The company's shares were up
$1.06 at $59.19 in consolidated U.S. stock exchange
The executives expressed
confidence that the company would continue to deliver
consistent growth in earnings per share of at least 10
percent. They predicted sales growth this year in the
``high single digits.''
In 1998 the company
posted sales of $1.58 billion in the first quarter and
$6.75 billion for the full year. Earnings per share
were 36 cents in the quarter and $1.58 for the
The company, formed by the 1995 merger of Pharmacia
of Sweden and the U.S. company Upjohn, said it would
centralize its corporate management team at its new
permanent headquarters in Peapack, N.J., at the end of the
summer. The cost of the move is estimated at $55 million
to $75 million. An unspecified charge for this will
be taken against 1999 earnings, a company spokesman
As part of its growth plans, the company said it
would continue to make substantial investments in
research and development and marketing and promotion to
increase sales of its key products, including Xalatan, a
glaucoma drug, and Detrol, a therapy for overactive
In 1998 Xalatan sales totaled $332 million. Detrol,
launched in April 1998, posted global sales of $125
million last year.
Analysts' consensus earnings
estimates for the company are 44 cents a share for the 1999
first quarter and $1.82 a share for the full year,
according to the research firm First Call. A Pharmacia &
Upjohn spokesman said the company was ``not
uncomfortable'' with the estimates.
``Through our actions
to date, we have created a new P&U, a company that
is on track to become a high-performance
competitor,'' said Chief Executive Officer Fred Hassan. ``We
have now delivered four consecutive quarters of growth
and double-digit earnings for 1998 -- exactly as
promised. Our challenge now is to sustain the turnaround
and build long-term growth.''
The company also
reported substantial progress in reducing its tax rate to
30 percent during 1999 from 32 percent in 1998. It
said the lower rate would align its tax position with
that of its industry peers.
Thanks for your advise on whether to put money
into Allergan at this valuation. Based on your
comments, and those of others on this board, I think I'll
take a seat on the sidelines for now, keep an eye
(sorry) on the company and invest on any pull back. Who
knows, maybe I'll be able to participate in some of the
upside from the new cyclosporin product you mentioned.
Can anyone offer advice on what the support level
might be on this stock? I'm guessing $80 (represents
30-32x est. 99 eps and 35-36x trailing).
for your honest and well thought out remarks.
I visited Elan's website today. I was also very
surprised at what they have become over the last 12 months.
Stock's been hit hard lately but they have a number of
pending NDA's at the FDA. Most notably, for those of us
that follow Allergan..... Elan made an FDA filing in
December 1998 for approval of Neurobloc (their version of
Botox) for treatment of cervical dystonia. Couldn't find
any mention of when they expect approval. Can anyone
tell us if Neurobloc qualifies for FDA fast track
review since it was submitted for cervical dystonia and
there is no approved treatment for that disease?
Another question, are Neurobloc and Botox different
(botulinum Type A vs Type B)? If they are different (not
generics)and Neurobloc is approved for treatment of cervial
dystonia and Botox has no such approval, could insurance
companies refuse to reimburse for Botox treatment of
cervical dystonia because Botox isn't approved and only
approve reimbursement of Neurobloc for that indication?
How would this affect Botox?