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  • thinkwhenyouinvest thinkwhenyouinvest Mar 30, 2011 3:25 PM Flag

    Are there realy only 35,000 restaurants taking reservations in US?

    According to the article in Seeking Alpha there are only 35,000 reservation taking restaurants in US.

    With 20,000 customers already using OpenTable there is not much room for growth.

    Any comments?

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    • noluckneed3d Mar 30, 2011 11:15 PM Flag

      I'm short, but admit that 35,000 seems low. That is only 1 (reservation-taking) restaurant per 10,000 citizens.

      If the average restaurant holds 100 patrons, and only 50% of the population frequent these restaurants, that equates to a person eating at a reserved table every 50 days. Seems a bit too infrequent, but not beyond reason.

      (Why the heck am I doing some quant analysis. People will keep buying this stock)

      • 1 Reply to noluckneed3d
      • 35,000 seems like a lot to me. Here in Florida, I can't even think of one in the town where I live, and a lot of restaurant users are retirees, many of whom don't use the Internet.

        In fact I just got on the Open Table web site to see what it was about and the nearest restaurant was 40 miles away.

        From what I can see the restaurants being promoted are mostly located in large cities and include a lot of pricey Italian restaurants and Brazilian steakhouses.

        Probably the real point is that it is more to do with referrals than reservations--a kind of Yellow Pages of restaurants that gets people into restaurants that they might not otherwise know about. The service is much more valuable to restaurants than to diners.

        Of course in the long run you are going to pay for the service in the form of padded restaurant bills, but then this is not a service for the poor.

        Can the company expand to China and add another million restaurants to the roster? Unlikely, because the US is the only country where diners are so wedded to the car. In other counties people are much more likely to walk to the restaurant or dine close to home.

        It looks to me that the stock has to come to earth, but I suppose they may be able to use the high stock price to make acquisitions of businesses that actually make money.

        Probably it comes down to whether management can really execute and make money out of this, or whether there just isn't the demand.

    • What do you mean only 35,000 restaurants?? 35,000 is a ton of restaurants, I mean can you even name 1,000 restaurants? Sure its pricey but the company is still pretty small at under $3 billion. So who cares this stock has been a great market leader giving a nice boost to lots of mutual funds and portfolios. Nowadays its all about finding the next mo mo stock. :)

    • refer to previous post -- 'interesting overview of OPEN' -- if you can to get much broader analysis of OPEN's business, not just in U.S., but in the rest of the world. This is a growth story that's already in play.

    • From the company's VERY OWN Form S-3 Filing with the SEC, they say 30,000, not 35,000:

      Restaurant Industry Background

      The commercial restaurant industry is broadly divided into "quick-service" and "full-service" segments. We target our offerings to full-service restaurants that accept reservations. We believe based on our internal estimates that there are approximately 30,000 reservation-taking restaurants in North America that seat approximately 600 million diners through reservations annually, though this number fluctuates with economic and other conditions.

    • I realize americans think the world ends at their borders, but you might think about other countries. Plus, being that they totally dominate the reservations biz, they'll monetize additional avenues for revenues and profits--just like other dominant forces on the web.

      The shorts who think that they can calculate future income with straight line extrapolations are going to need a new diaper collection soon.

      • 1 Reply to brodude1969
      • This is quintessential local business.
        Why would any Brit or Frenchmen care to use use the website which allows him to make reservation in WhoKnowsWhereInAmerica?
        The same is for Americans, how often do they dine in Europe?
        There are absolutely no economics of scale in on line table reservations.
        Locals can do the same thing easily.
        Can you imagine the cost of customizing offer to gazzilion of dining cultures in Europe?

        And save yourself remarks on diapers and similar.

    • more people can use it for growth...19milion tables were sat last quarter using opentable...they can get 50mill tables using it this quarter..thatsa the growf

    • Yes, think about it, the percentage of white table cloth restaurants is small compared to the rest ot the walkin restaurants like Chili's and Olive Garden that would not use OPEN.