<< these funds piled in last fall only to conduct short squeeze operations >>
Many possibilities but it's important to remember that not all funds, institutions and individuals are in the same situation.
1. 52-week range is from about $30-$100.
2. Probably a fair amount of hedging going on both sides.
3. Results over the last 4 quarters have disappointed
4. Expectations for at least next 2-3 quarters are lower.
So, some OPEN shareholders who bought within the last year are up 20% and some are far below their purchase price.
Some who jumped in last Fall were probably smart and either hedged or sold when OPEN was trading much higher. It went from ~$30 in late Nov to ~$50 in Feb. with a couple of other big moves since then.
Some may believe in the long term potential and will simply hang on through a lousy 2012 hoping for a return to strong growth next year.
Some may have little/no option but to hold. For example index funds that hold OPEN because it was added to the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
I doubt there are many who are expecting a big short squeeze anytime soon. Mgmt lowered expectations. OPEN is now in the weakest part of their year. The Market had a great 1st quarter and may rest or pull back this summer. Companies like Facebook and LinkedIn are getting all the attention now.
If you ignore the higher volume around earnings you'll see that trading volume has been declining for a long time. OPEN is no longer a HOT stock. And it isn't likely to regain HOT stock status anytime soon. Maybe after Q4 2012 results are reported if they are really good - but we won't know that until Feb 2013.
What those who bought in the past are thinking or were thinking is interesting... but the more interesting question IMO is who is interested in buying OPEN now? I don't anyone is in a big hurry.
I was shocked to see how many funds bought in as of 9/30/11 and then it appears the most of them have averaged down on Q3 earnings again. The smartest guys were the ones who started new position in December but I suspect their ride didn't last too long.