Would be interesting to know how much available cash csco has compared to jnpr. Intel has killed many a competitor with billions in cash and price slashing. Lower the margin, grap the business until the competition bankrupts. I am sure csco can do the same to jnpr.
I think most (or at least a lot) of their revenue is actually coming from their deal with Siemens.
Check out the news reports since January and all the deals except for one very vague one from Cox is with Siemens or is overseas.
However, that doesn't mean that their capex is going through the roof either!
That's why I am still short at this point.
Smith Barney stated back in August that JNPR has a high valuation, but should because they have always had a high valuation (Ok, whatever). But they also had a price target of 15, which is still a high valuation, and haven't upped it during this latest run!!!
To me that means that they expect this mini-bubble to pop and the price to come back down, until they higher earnings to justify it.
By the way, popping this bubble will help the stock market go up eventually in my opininon.
Cramer said on Kudlow and Cramer yesterday, he expects Dow 10,0000 by the end of the year. Ok, with improved earnings I might go along with that. But you know what he said about NASDAQ? FLAT WITH WHERE IT IS RIGHT NOW. Not that he is the genius or anything, but I think anyone can agree that for some reason, tech still gets ahead of itself way too fast.
"Cisco experienced over 25% sequential growth in orders
for its high-end routers (GSRs) with Cisco�s assertion that
it continues to gain market share over the competition.
CEO John Chambers also pointed out that orders in the
current quarter for the 12000 series routers generated
almost 1.5 times the total estimated revenues of Cisco�s
largest router competitor (read: Juniper) in its most
recently reported quarter. If Cisco finds it important to
discuss Juniper�s position in the market in its earnings call,
it implies that Cisco may further intensify the battle in its
competition with Juniper, thereby leading to more pricing
and margin pressure going forward."
The point is: CSCO is the big dog with more irons in the fire and could better afford a protracted war in this segment of their overall business, if need be. This one area is critical to JNPR. JNPR is more or less relegated to having to zag(react) where CSCO does not zig(dominate). JNPR is less able to control their fate and prospects than CSCO. (eg. potential margin pressures). A significantly higher premium valuation for a reactor (number 2 position); although perhaps having some nimbleness due to smaller size and not being as subject as much to the law of large numbers; does not seem justifiable. Why is it that blue chips in general tend to command overall higher valuations, like peg ratios, than smaller fry? Could it be reliability of delivering numbers, even if the overall growth rate may not be as high?
JNPR's growth prospects can be limited by the competitve environment beyond their control: as JNPR may only be allowed to only get so big before CSCO would really take the gloves off. There is no guarantee of either competitor winning any particular battle, yet if it became an all-out war one would be better suited siding with the player with more resources. This scenario does not favor JNPR, and this is why JNPR's valuation seems ludicrous in comparison. Add to that an essentially moribund overall capex picture from domestic carriers for the forseeable future and JNPR is absolutely required to be incredibly nimble and savvy indeed to lay claim to enough success to justify these valuations. What were projections of router spending for the year? +6%? Claiming JNPR can double revenues, that are doubled again for anything but an extremely extended length of time sounds fanciful. It seems too tall an order to fill. Something will have to give.
Lucent Technologies and Juniper Networks have teamed up to challenge Cisco Systems' dominance in selling network equipment to major North American telephone companies.
In their first-ever deal together, Lucent and Juniper on Monday announced they will sell equipment that major carriers use to upgrade their aging telephone networks. Juniper is supplying the products and Lucent is providing the software to manage the network, said Norm Bogen, an In-Stat/MDR telephone industry analyst.
It seems that the latest standard that everyone is embracing is MPLS, which lets carriers offer a multitude of services on the same connection. What's Lucent's position on the standard?
We're partnering with Juniper Networks. They have an outstanding MPLS switch, and we're going to surround it with all the network management, provision and traffic engineering, along with our quality service.
Lucent and Juniper said they will deliver �unified solutions� designed to migrate service provider networks to IP infrastructures. These offerings will address core, data, broadband and metro optical wireline requirements, the companies said.
Lucent is offering two sources for IP/MPLS � Cisco and Juniper � because Cisco competes directly with Lucent in wireline networks, specifically in ATM switching and metro/long-haul optical, according to Nikos Theodosopoulos, telecommunications equipment analyst at UBS Warburg in New York. Nonetheless, as recently as five days ago, top executives at Cisco were pressing Lucent to scotch the deal with Juniper and partner with Cisco for the wireline opportunity as well.
�We continue to believe Juniper is [a] likely partner although we cannot rule Cisco out completely,� Theodosopoulos stated in an April 30 bulletin. An April 4 UBS Warburg bulletin stated that �Cisco is making a big executive push to turn this decision around in favor of Cisco.�
Cisco declined to comment on the UBS Warburg statements but the urgency of Cisco�s reported proposal is understandable: Lucent is the leading supplier of ATM switches to the U.S. RBOCs, a wealthy customer base long coveted by Cisco that needs to migrate those ATM infrastructures to IP/MPLS.
Though Lucent is also a leading supplier of CDMA gear to wireless operators � the customer base for the Cisco/Lucent partnership -- service providers who offer both wireline and wireless services spend more on wireline gear.
Looks to me like Chambers cares:
2002-12-05 12,500 CSCO Disposition
2001-09-10 157 CSCO Disposition (Non Open Market)
While Kriens? Well... sell sell sell.
2003-07-16 19,372 JNPR Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $14.339 per share.
(Value of $277,775)
2003-07-15 500,000 JNPR Sale at $14.8264 per share.
(Proceeds of $7,413,200)
2003-05-07 500,000 JNPR Planned Sale
(Estimated proceeds of $6,025,765)
2003-05-07 500,000 JNPR Sale at $12.051 per share.
(Proceeds of $6,025,500)
2003-02-19 500,000 JNPR Sale at $9.038 per share.
(Proceeds of $4,519,000)
2002-11-22 500,000 JNPR Sale at $8.667 per share.
(Proceeds of $4,333,500)
2002-11-22 500,000 JNPR Planned Sale
(Estimated proceeds of $4,333,632)
2002-08-19 490,800 JNPR Sale at $8.381 per share.
(Proceeds of $4,113,394)
2002-08-19 490,800 JNPR Planned Sale
(Estimated proceeds of $4,230,696)
Cisco is becoming more like the old IBM mentality then ever before. They will suffer similar pain as IBM did. Cisco main profit margins are in cash reserves, sales earnings are bloew average. Juniper earned more of a profit then Cisco. THat tells you the condition Cisco is in! Juniper wil out shine Cisco in the next 12 months!
you are by far won the idiot on the board award!
Please read the financial staements there is something called an income statement then Balance sheet and Statement of Cash flows.
The income statement is where they show profits.....
WOW, have a good weekend people like this guy should be put out of their misery!
CISCO has 3x more cash than JNPR is worth Market Cap (shares * price)
CSCO = 21% profit after tax
JNPR = 8% profit after tax
CSCO sells networking equipment from end-to-end. The lower end products and products that have been around for years have much lower profit margins. The high end router space (JNPR's bread 'n butter) maintains some of the highest profit margins. Since the bulk of CSCO's revenue has been from enterprise and lower end networking products, it's even more impressive that they have 70% GM and 21% net income after tax. JNPR is only playing in a profit rich environment and can only squeeze out 8%.