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Juniper Networks, Inc. Message Board

  • ibarretteca ibarretteca Dec 7, 2003 11:43 AM Flag

    Juniper's Chart - Rising Wedge pattern

    The next week or two should be interesting from a technical point of view. Juniper's chart reveals a classic RISING WEDGE pattern which is inherently bearish. If the stock price breaks below the 50-day moving average, we may see 14.00. To break out of this pattern, JNPR would have to close above 19.50 with some volume conviction... Any comments

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    • In short term, the stock, JNPR, may suffer a bit based on the following reasons: 1) tax selling: people will sell the winner to offset losers; 2) Dollar weakness: US dollar index is selling at $89+ range. If you compare 1993, the economy getting out the reccession, the dollar is still $10+ higher. This seems logical in that for US company sells over sea, it requires price competive. This will help the company trades globly. 3) Valuation of tech companies seems a bit high.

      This presents a very good buying opportunities because earning reports are right on the corner. In Jan, Companies earning report card will kick in. It would be a confirmation of further growth. I am positive of what JNPR is going to deliver. I am thinking 0.06 is very good possibility given the history what they are customed to do. So, I would be put my Jan05 leaps in if the price falls below $15 per share.

    • I seem to remember saying this same thing to you a week or so ago... and I will say it again:

      You just don't get it. And if you don't get it, you should not be trying to run your own money.

      There may be a few morons out there who really are "angry" about the valuation. But the vast majority of short sellers are not angry about anything. It's simply an opporttunity to make money--in this case, lots of it.

      I would submit that if anyone is emotionally attached to this stock, it's you.

      CM

    • ibarretteca: Agree 100%.

      JNPR is about 70 cents away from completing a nasty head-and-shoulders top. It already printed a lower high, and that's going to keep the smart money out of here on the long side. Likewise in the NDX where the chart looks very similar. As someone else noted,
      17.21 is a very important price level for JNPR. A break below will print a lower low in the chart, trigger tons of stops, and most likely send this into a very nasty free fall.

      Next shot for support is at 17.60 (50 DMA), and nearly everyone is expecting it to test that, probably in concert with the NDX which is also heading that way. Keep in mind that we have already tested the 50 DMA three other times during this rally. As many traders know, the 4th test of trendline or MA support/resistance is usually the one to bet on. If it fails, there won't be much motivation for the bulls to hold 17.21... so I believe a failure of 17.60--on a closing basis--is most likely the final nail in the coffin.

      The smart money already got out of here prior to expiration above 18 as evidenced by distribution in the charts. One more shake of the tree and the rest of 'em will drop like flies.

      CM

    • I personally don't see arising wedge pattern.

      I do believe that jnpr will face a swift correction before moving upwards again over 20. IMO, jnpr could go down to 16.5, maybe 16.

      There is just too much bullishness in networking. Every broker likes CSCO and since it posted results has barely been able to move upwards.

      CSCO's p/s is 8, that's a lot for a company that has 80% of its revenues in a mature market. On top of that CSCO new markets initiatives have lower margins. So, IMO CSCO will soon see a correction and that will put some more pressure on Jnpr

      Am

 
JNPR
22.90-0.83(-3.50%)Feb 5 4:02 PMEST