<<<study the stock, not the co. >>>
this has to be the worst piece of advise on investing I've ever heard. Come on you're kidding right?
increased profits do not equal increased shr price. jnpr has had better profits and the stock is flat for 3-4 months. profit declines don't always mean shr price goes down.
my way of stock study has provided many opportunities for making money, your way has yielded a flat stock. stan weinstein wrote 'how to profit in bull and bear markets' in late '80s. he's the only one that predicted the 87 crash. read it.
jnpr may be a good company, but not a good value to buy the stock. it is not going to 60.
you sound very naive. stock prices are determined by so many factors other than co. profits. you are not buying the co, you are buying the stock.
here's something you can take to the bank: if jnpr goes thru 20 in the next few days, its a short term buy for maybe 2-3 points. if it falls away from 20, short it for a ride to 17.
that's it, forget gigbe and csco, they're not relevant to making money in jnpr stock.
study the stock, not the co.
Big Institutions will pounce on this one so fast that RIMM/CAMP short squeezes will appear to be kids play.
You guys have no idea about Juniper, do you or what IP Routing is all about?
Do you guys know about InternetII and how many dollars will that bring in.
JNPR is the best investment of 2004/2005 and you all know it.
Hold it for a few quarters and you will see the explosive Up moves this stock is capable of.
If it dips, do yourself a favor and buy a few hundred shares and come back 2004 year end and you will see your money tripled or quadrupled at least.
BTW you seem to have missed my main point. So let me state it again.
Cisco is doing FIVE BILLION per quarter in revenues. Where is this coming from, it doesn't really matter. Cisco is almost a TWENTY BILLION dollar company.
Now we have JNPR doing far less revenue but getting half of the big wins. Actually "half" is really understating things because I will say that GIG-BE and Lucent were BIGGER than say Verizon's loss of half the contract to Cisco. This Gig BE thing in particular is HUGE. Anyway Cisco's FIVE BILLION per quarter pie is vulnerable that is my point. JNPR takes 1/5 of Cisco's business.... is that possible YES, and JNPR goes to $100 per sh. count on it.
There are wins and there are wins and this GIG BE deal was a huge one.
'You shorts got lucky in the last 3 year bear, because companies like jnpr and red hat which were the up and comers, the most expensive companies, dumped dramatically '
lol, you longs got lucky the last 8 months, this stock has appreciated way beyond normal valuations and earnings.
you are right about jnpr the COMPANY, but you are wrong about jnpr the STOCK. gig-be is good, but you need about 100 more contracts like that to justify the stock price. honestly, how much upside is there, what is your specific TARGET if you advise buying here?
Look the problem is that with the GIG-BE win, the street obviously feels that this is going to affect purchases going forward for all deals. Cisco does 5 billion per quarter in sales, I'm not sure how much in routers but it is significantly more than JNPRs sales. The GIG BE win is a showplace for future purchases and if JNPR gets a few of cisco's wins because of it, there is a lot more than 250mm in sales to be gained.
I've been on this board for months and it is the SAME OLD TUNE here. Its time to face facts. Is JNPR overvalued YES. Is JNPR's POTENTIAL overvalued? NO! Because there is another huge company right down the street doing 10x the business as JNPR but losing half the big wins to JNPR. It just follows that in a growing market environment (which the last 3 years WERE NOT), that JNPR is going to rise and Cisco will likely fall in terms of share. If JNPR were *not* able to win big against Cisco half the time this would not be true but as long as it is true then the bias on this stock is to the UPSIDE in an improving network spending environment.
You shorts got lucky in the last 3 year bear, because companies like jnpr and red hat which were the up and comers, the most expensive companies, dumped dramatically as the big companies gained share in the depression. That always happens in a declining mkt environment. But now we are back to growth and your past prognostications don't work!
If I had to guess how much business JNPR will gain due to this GIG BE deal? How about 10x the revenue they got from the win in the US, due to other countries emulating the US network? Have you thought of that? Japan, the E-U (EU wants to go all jnpr anyway with siemens) and China perhaps? China a wild card. But anyway to allocate 250mm in additional sales from a win like this is just bogus!
I gave up trying to reason with this lame board months ago. Same old people reading the same old charts that say a huge dump coming soon since July.
There is no need to get ugly and call people dork.
Revenue for this year will be $700 - 750m. I have aded $250 for the new contract and any unexpected growth.
EPS is below 20 cents. 7 cents for 389m outstanding shares, company has to make atleast 150m more in revenues. The point is that the number of shares is a whopping 389m.